NL100: Does this skirt make me look fat?

Claunchy · #1 08-07-2006, 05:53 PM

UTG is 19/2/2. MP3 is unknown.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($142.37)
SB ($107.95)
BB ($75.82)
UTG ($88.30)
Hero ($223.45)
UTG+2 ($20)
MP1 ($33)
MP2 ($24)
MP3 ($96.50)
CO ($149.62)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 3 folds, MP3 calls $5, 4 folds.

Flop: ($16.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero calls $8, MP3 calls $8.

Turn: ($40.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $38.5, UTG folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $79

Comments welcome on all streets.

L_Dude · #2 08-07-2006, 06:09 PM

Preflop: I prefer a raise, but I can see the call.

I don't know why you call this flop. I think it's a must raise to about $24. Your hand is worthy of protection and you need information about other people's hands.

Turn: This is ugly. What do you put villian on? KJ? JT? 99? TT? AQ? As played and without more knowledge about villian, I don't think you have any option other than to fold. This is going to be a bluff a significant percentage of the time, but it's too expensive to find out.

Claunchy · #3 08-07-2006, 06:15 PM

I agree that the flop is probably the worst part. At the time I basically assuming UTG had a premium hand (JJ+, AK). My plan was to call and reevaluate the turn since I'm behind his very limited range. I wasn't really expecting MP3 to come along.

In retrospect I think I should have raised.

josh_x · #4 08-07-2006, 06:23 PM

I don't mind the flop call, your hand is quite likely to be dominated/reverse dominated on this board, and calling to see what MP does as well as what the turn card is and what the bettor does allows you to get a better feel at a better cost. You risk giving a free draw to a 4 outer, but in the event of him hitting, you should be able to realise you are not good and fold without losing heaps

L_Dude · #5 08-07-2006, 06:31 PM

I mind the call because this board looks so dangerous. UTG made a CB, unless you are planning on calling him all the way down, you might as well fold now if you don't raise.

What card can come on the turn that MP3 makes this bet on that you don't fold? An ace or a king, maybe? If a blank comes and he makes this bet, you are still likely folding the turn.

That's why I think the flop is raise > fold > call

bilbo-san · #6 08-07-2006, 06:41 PM

Raise or call preflop is fine either way. Understand that each action leads you to play the flop differently. When you hit, players rarely put you on AK since you just called pre-flop, and you can extract a lot from AQ/KQ.

On this flop, though, many reasonable hands that you would otherwise expect action from on a K-high flop actually have you in pretty ugly shape (KQ most notably).

I prefer a raise. This is one of those times where you really just want to take down the pot now. As played, when you just called, you invited MP to call with just about any piece, which you don't actually want (calls from worse hands), because playing OOP sucks. Also, if you raise, and UTG calls/raises, you know you are probably in bad shape, but you aren't likely to lose a ton of money chasing.

Which brings me to the turn. MP may just have a pair of Qs or 9s, but unfortunately, you have to let her have it, because even if she is semi-bluffing it is correct to fold. To see why, take a look at the chapter on defending against the semi-bluff in Theory of Poker.

This is last part is why you prefer to raise and knock out worse hands from MP on the flop.

AKQJ10 · #7 08-07-2006, 06:50 PM

I agree with consensus -- a flop raise to protect this is essential. If you get three-bet, let it go. If you get smooth called by MP3, everything depends on the read. Some people would chase gutshots here regardless of price, but it depends on the player. Chances are you're in trouble to JT, a set, or two pair if you get cold-called.

But let's suppose that only UTG calls. On the turn, if UTG checks (as in the actual hand) I probably check behind to induce a bluff on the river, and then call a PSB damn near regardless of the river card.