Call Michael Wilbon for some action.

[OpenWheel]

On todays Pardon the Interruption, Kornheiser and Wilbon made predictions of the chances of the Dodgers winning the World Series. Kornheiser said 15% and Wilbon said 30% and made some fun of Kornheiser for doubting the Dodgers.

Wilbon explained that if they make the NL finals he thinks they have "a chance" against the Mets. So Kornheiser said "That's what I'm saying, 15% to win the World Series!" and Wilbon pooh-poo'd it and said "30%".

I knew that if you assumed 100% to make the NL finals, and then said they were equally matched from there on, that it still would only be 1/2^2 or only 25% to win the World Series. If they were 50-50 to make the NL finals in the first place then it'd be (1/2)^3 or 12.5%

I guess Wilbon REALLY believes in the Dodgers because somewhere in there they'd have to be big, big, favorites.

[Artdogg]

Yea i dont think he was thinking about it clearly, 30% is very reasonable for the NL, making 15% for the WS pretty generous as it is. Any way you look at it 30% is way too high.

[MicroBob]

i remember those guys really screwing up some other percentages when they were talking about other things too.

Like, "The Yankees aren't really a HUGE favorite to win this series. Maybe ONLY an 80% of them winning it."
"Yes, I agree. Probably ONLY 80 to 85% chance of them winning the series. I think it's much more evenly matched than most people think."


Something like that anyway.
I remember scratching my head at the idiocy.


They just happen to suck at math.

[Quadstriker]

Their %s are always a big joke.. and no one is laughing but them.

[MCS]

This is pretty common; their percentages are often way different than the Vegas line. Also, they'll often assign 0% or 100% to things, which is clearly incorrect.

I think you'll be happier if you stop caring about the numbers they pick and just listen to the commentary. It's not like Kornheiser and Wilbon are taking the percentages super-seriously.

[Assani Fisher]

I don't think they put much thought into it....the actual analysis is the meat and carrots of the show. I wouldn't worry about it.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
the actual analysis is the meat and carrots of the show. I wouldn't worry about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF does this mean?

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the actual analysis is the meat and carrots of the show. I wouldn't worry about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF does this mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

I means the same thing I said, which is that the numbers they pick aren't what they're focusing on. The hosts are mostly interested in discussing the topic, not setting a line (which they don't know how to do anyway).

Also, I think it should read "meat and potatoes," but I like carrots too.

[wiper]

tony k also said that joe theismann keeps 'stealing the blankets while they're sleeping' on his bus, too.

are you guys really serious about the percentages?? i love when they do them, and yeah, they're usually not what i'd have, but it's ENTERTAINMENT, nothing more.

[OpenWheel]

I didn't care about their numbers myself, but I did think it was humorous. I thought it was sad that somebody wouldn't take the time to multiply 2*2 in their head before throwing it out on national tv.

But then I began to think that, yes, it does matter somewhat, because there's someone out their who probably doesn't think for themselves that was offered a ridiculous line on the Dodgers and grabbed it because "wilbon says it's 30%". I know that sometimes they make joke numbers, such as the Yankees at 80% to win the series, but they make it clear that it's a joke by their demeanor.

Of course, they don't have to care about what they say if they don't want to.