#1
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Unemployment increasing vs Fed Pausing Rate Hikes
So nonfarm payrolls expanded by a number lower than what was expected,the unemployment rate rises, and average hourly wages do not increase as much as economists expected.
On the other hand, all the above are pointing to signs that the so called "soft landing" has been achieved. And stocks have gone through the roof during pre-market trading. My question is, why does the Fed possibly pausing rate hikes have a higher influence on the stockmarket than the unemployment / average hourly wage figures? Once again, forgive my limited understanding of the stock market, but wouldn't an increase in unemployment and what not be seen as having a negative impact on the overall economy? And how is it that the positives of the fed pausing rate hikes outweight the negatives of an economy where there are less jobs being created, wages are not increasing as expected, and the unemployment rate is increasing? |
#2
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Re: Unemployment increasing vs Fed Pausing Rate Hikes
a high growth economy generally leads to faster rates of inflation. The fed goal for a long time now has been to control inflation
So with a rise in unemployment and slower growth then predicted, it is assumed that the fed has been able to slow the growth down which should keep inflation under control for another quarter. The stock market reacts as it did for a couple reasons: 1. The stock market is like a mob. When they see some people doing something they all jump in....(see the internet age of 2000 and so many other periods). 2. More importantly though...these numbers raise the odds that the Fed wont raise the interest rate. When traders feel that they can "predict" the future they are much more likely to do trading. You can look back at the last meeting the fed have to see that when it became likely that the interest rate was going back up, Wall street had a big day just b/c they had an understanding of what would be happening in the meeting. |
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