A fold.

[dsaxton]

Opponent unknown.

I hate making these laydowns, and feel incredibly weak tight when I do, but I can't imagine not drawing to a maximum of 4 outs against a random opponent in this spot. Is calling this down for two more bets profitable? Looking back at the hand history, the cards he would need to beat me are fairly dead, but who raises me without having at least trips here?

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (4.00 SB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.50 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (5.50 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises

Total pot: (6.50 BB)

[Xellos]

There's one five left, two sevens. 5-9 straight seems like his most likely holding. You know 16 of the cards. 36 left, 4 give you a probable winner and 1-2 more bets. You are getting 7.5:1 and you only need about 8:1.

[frappeboy]

Well he could have been slowplaying a straight on 5th, he could have pocket jacks, queens, kings, or aces, he could have trips, he could have a full house. You are getting 8.5-1 to try and fill. Also any ace could be an additional out if he does have pocket kings/queens. I probably call here and hope he is not full and has one of the other hands. I just hate showing people that I can lay this down, and with the odds being close, even if it's a negative expectation play, its very small and you gain that your observant opponents dont think they can run over you.

[frappeboy]

[ QUOTE ]
There's one five left, two sevens. 5-9 straight seems like his most likely holding. You know 16 of the cards. 36 left, 4 give you a probable winner and 1-2 more bets. You are getting 7.5:1 and you only need about 8:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is getting 8.5-1.. remember his bet.

[dsaxton]

Yeah, one of my main concerns is appearing weak tight to my more observant opponents. I suppose I could adjust by folding against more passive opponents, and calling down aggressive players if they start raising me with unusual frequency.

[frappeboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, one of my main concerns is appearing weak tight to my more observant opponents. I suppose I could adjust by folding against more passive opponents, and calling down aggressive players if they start raising me with unusual frequency.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the point is against all 2 pair hands and the straight the call is correct. Against trips the call is slightly negative (since you may hit a deuce and still lose). Against a full house its a fairly large -EV mistake.

So against the full range of hands its pretty close. Keep in mind you have good implied odds anytime you hit a jack. If you hit an ace it's gonna suck but I'd pay off.

Having looked at the hand now I think you should have check/folded 6th though. But after you bet now it becomes a call.

[dsaxton]

You don't think check-folding seems even more weak than bet-folding?

Another thing I didn't consider is that an observant/thinking player who might be prone to exploit this type of weakness should also be aware that I raised with an A up into dead 7's and 6's, so he'll probably assume I only had J's when I fold.

[cgrohman]

His most likely holding is a straight given the deadness of his cards. I might have checked 6th. He called your oppent Jacks bet on 5th and just paired up. I dont think giving him afree card is all that bad as if he is not already ahead he has few outs to beat you.

Although I would fold in this situation, I think posters on 2+2 give their opponents too much credit for being rational thinking players. Normally, in order for me to lay down a marginal hand on 6th or 7th street, my oppnent must have previously convinced me that he is not a moron. My default for any given player is that he is a dumbfuck, and I will hold onto that opinion until he proves me wrong.

[cgrohman]

I usally don't worry about appearing weak tight. First off, if you are a tight plaqyer to begin with, observant players are going to be less likely to tangle with you. Seocndly, if you are tight, you are usally playing the goods and you want people to bet into you more later on in the hand.

I don't think a check fold is that weak tight depending on the opponent. Do you think this guy would try to play you off open Jacks after you have been betting an Ace showing without a better hand? Is he that good?

[CarlosChadha]

[ QUOTE ]
His most likely holding is a straight given the deadness of his cards. I might have checked 6th. He called your oppent Jacks bet on 5th and just paired up. I dont think giving him afree card is all that bad as if he is not already ahead he has few outs to beat you.

Although I would fold in this situation, I think posters on 2+2 give their opponents too much credit for being rational thinking players. Normally, in order for me to lay down a marginal hand on 6th or 7th street, my oppnent must have previously convinced me that he is not a moron. My default for any given player is that he is a dumbfuck, and I will hold onto that opinion until he proves me wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

great advise!