Agonizing on the river - all options look reasonable

[Pog0]

1. Does anyone have an overwhelming preference to raising or folding preflop?
2. What's your river action?

51/38/2.6
SD: 50/43
over 700 hands

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>

[Alobar]

If the guy plays as laggro post flop as his PF numbers suggest, then I dont like 3 bet isolating with QJ. But Im a weak tight nit PF.

The river depends a lot on read. A standard answer from stats alone isnt going to offer much IMO. Would he have played any pair aggresively post flop? Will he fold a better hand to a raise (Ax Kx), what kind of hand is he donking on the river that he didnt bluff with on the turn?

[veganmav]

fwiw I'd rather 3bet with A3 than QJ

i want showdown value.

calling the river is bad. folding or raising are better, and i'd lean heavily towards folding, but then again, i would have folded preflop

[veganmav]

and i am weaktight

[Pog0]

I want to call the river because he may have JT or any spade. I'd have expected more action from some sort of real hand. Considering I'm instantly calling with an ace, is there really that big a gap to Q high?

I want to raise the river to avoid chopping with QJ and to fold out Kx (and maybe Ax).

I don't want to raise the river in case he'd 3-bet bluff me, although it's highly unlikely.

I don't want to raise the river because he's retarded.

I want to fold the river because I have Q high.

I want to call the river because I only have to win 11.5% of the time.

I want to fold preflop but it's too late to do that now.

Somehow I'm convinced that I win way more than 11% of the time when I call and think that folding is a huge mistake on the river... although I have some feeling that I may be completely off base here and want to make sure my game is in check.

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
and i am weaktight

[/ QUOTE ]

mmhmm, after your KTs utg thread, I won't be giving too much thought to your preflop advice since I think I'm too weak myself anyway. Preflop I really don't know if raising is +EV or -EV but I imagine it's close (and strongly dependant on post flop play). I'm much more curious about the river or other ways to play from the turn onwards.

The question is: WWBZD?

[StupidAcesSigh]

I would definitely fold this preflop, against all but the most insane players at the 20/40 game.

[MATT111]

I definetely dump this.
I`d 3-bet A6+ here if the other players on the table let me get away withz this.

[helpmeout]

I'd check the turn.

A river raise would be good but i dont have balls that big.