15/30: KQs turn and river bluff

[SHnewbie]

This hand might've been a little out of control in a few spots. Play based on a stat based read only.


Villain is 46/25/1.5 (150) with a WSD of only 28


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.66 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.83 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

River: (10.83 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

[mute]

Well, just calling the turn and folding the river UI, seems very weak with such a strong draw.

However that would be my play. Yes, he has a low WTSD, but a) it's a relatively small sample size and b) he capped preflop. I just dont think, you will get AK to fold here, so you have to hope, that he was getting out of line preflop for this to work.

That said, it's not, that bad a play, and even if you don't have much fold equity, there is some metagame aspects to it, and I'm sure others will disagree with me.

On the river, the pot is getting big, and he doesn't need to fold much to make a bet +EV. However, again, I don't like the bet. I don't think he will fold acehigh now, if he didn't on the turn (especially with such a drawheavy board and the safe rivercard).

In general, I think you should be careful with WTSD-stats unless you have a very big samplesize.

[SHnewbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, just calling the turn and folding the river UI, seems very weak with such a strong draw.

However that would be my play. Yes, he has a low WTSD, but a) it's a relatively small sample size and b) he capped preflop. I just dont think, you will get AK to fold here, so you have to hope, that he was getting out of line preflop for this to work.

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as the cap preflop, I thought his preflop capping range might be slightly higher than the normal AK, JJ+ type hands given that his preflop raise was a little higher than normal and his postflop aggression was high. I thought he likely might cap with AQ, AJs, TT type hands. Given that, I thought AQ or AK might fold to my turn raise, and if he didn't, then to my river bet enough to be profitable. I think it is close and therefore, as you said, probably not a big mistake either way.

I'm interested in hearing other comments, though

[ShipThatHolla]

What about all the bets your opponent has put in so far indicates to you that he is not willing to put in one more?

[SHnewbie]

[ QUOTE ]
What about all the bets your opponent has put in so far indicates to you that he is not willing to put in one more?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, AK is a strong possiblity. Against the capping range I listed above, this player has AK around 25% of the time. I have a very believable turn bluff with the J hitting as AJ is a likely holding for me. It's not as if the turn was a 2 of diamonds....also, on the river bet, I believe my opponent has AK more than often enough for a one bet bluff (I also think that on this board, AK folds quite often).

[DrGiggles]

he's not folding this river enough of the time. i don't like the turn raise.