Do you raise this turn?

pba08 · #1 07-21-2006, 12:05 PM

MP2 is 13/6/4.5 over 140 (small sample size). Table is quite loose-passive, with a bunch of hands where we had 4-5 to the flop w/o a raise. MP3 (lag) & I have been doing almost all the pre-flop raising.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

This felt like a continuation bet, but I didn't want to play back with this many people in the pot.

Turn: (7 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, SB folds, BB folds, Hero ???

Do you raise here? Calling would be horrible IMO. I think it's a raise or fold.

fishyak · #2 07-21-2006, 12:36 PM

Played this way, I'd fold after that turn card. The only alternative I see was to bet the flop. If I get raised, I can fold easily on the turn when I do not improve. If I do not get raised, then decisions get more difficult, but I would like to know how many people are left in the hand if the flop round got raised.

buhler26 · #3 07-21-2006, 12:54 PM

I would fold this flop actually. I don't think you have the odds to chase a two-outer, and you are more than likely behind with that K out there. AQ, AJ, and maybe AT are the only hands you're beating from the pfr, and with two other callers, you are even more likely to be behind.

As played, if you raise the turn and he calls, you are in a precarious situation on the river, deciding whether to bet again or not. If you call, you are giving a free card to overcards. So again, I think folding is correct.

fishyak · #4 07-21-2006, 01:14 PM

I think you have a big enough pot and enough players to warrant not folding the flop. It looks like you close the action so you are not vunerable to a raise, and you have a lot of cards that can help build out your str8 draw.

When the turn closes out the value on your straight draw, now its time to fold.

Nick Royale · #5 07-21-2006, 01:22 PM

I like peeling the flop especially since we're having the 4 of hearts. When we hit a set we'll have good implied odds and I think our bdsd is worth about 1 out. This gives us 3 outs, we need about 14.5:1 from the pot, we get 13:1 but implied will easily cover for this.

Fold the turn. You could check/raise as a complete bluff if you'd like. But for this to be profitable you need a reason to believe he'll bet PPs such as QQ-TT here for a free sd and that he's likely to fold these to a check/raise. Unless you have a reason to believe this is the case you're better off just folding. Not many players will bet the turn with hands such as AQ/AJ after getting called on the flop in 3 spots, so you're pretty much always behind here.

biendover · #6 07-21-2006, 01:34 PM

Not raising turn. why? cause what if you get called on the turn. You're going to have to pull the trigger again on the river to complete your bluff and have the guy call you down w/a PP or KQ. Only good for meta purposes.

If you're doing any raising, I would check raise the flop. Makes your hand seem believable when its against bigger field.

Nick Royale · #7 07-21-2006, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you're doing any raising, I would check raise the flop. Makes your hand seem believable when its against bigger field.

[/ QUOTE ]
Check/raising the flop is totally crazy, you'll win this pot UI about never and we'd like to draw as cheap as possible.

chesspain · #8 07-21-2006, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like peeling the flop especially since we're having the 4 of hearts. When we hit a set we'll have good implied odds and I think our bdsd is worth about 1 out. This gives us 3 outs, we need about 14.5:1 from the pot, we get 13:1 but implied will easily cover for this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you failing to discount the fours (i.e. not double-count them) with respect to your combined outs for the set and bdsd, especially since the staight can't go backwards two places? Subsequently, I would think that the bdsd was worth maybe .5 outs, at best.

I ask this because I would have been tempted to fold the flop.

Hielko · #9 07-21-2006, 01:54 PM

I would fold here in this spot. It's doubtfull, but possible that you have the best hand on the flop; but there are so many cards possible that are bad and your draw to something better is so weak. If there wasn't a 2-flush on the board I could see a point in peeling the flop here, altough I would probably still fold.

Nick Royale · #10 07-21-2006, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you failing to discount the fours (i.e. not double-count them) with respect to your combined outs for the set and bdsd, especially since the staight can't go backwards two places ? Subsequently, I would think that the bdsd was worth maybe .5 outs, at best.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, you're correct, didn't think of that. And given the 2 hearts on the board I agree 0,5 outs would be a better estimate. How many outs do you give the two 4 outs we have? With implied odds I still think this is ralatively close, but folding seems like the best option.