I have top2 on the flop, shouldn't I be ahead?

[TheIrishThug]

Blue is my thought process as I played.

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $49.05
Hero: $97.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $5</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($11.5, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $8</font>,
<font color="blue">You don't minraise me, I'll come back at you</font> <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $44.05</font>,
<font color="blue">Oh, I guess he has a set</font> Hero calls.
<font color="blue">Wait, what?</font>

So my read puts him on 33 because I don't think many people c/c AA or JJ preflop. I sent this to a friend and he said that because of the guys shorter stack and the chance that he shows up with A3 is enough to still make this call. Is this really the case?

[BalugaWhale]

I don't get away from this, although I may wait till the turn to push.

[TheIrishThug]

So you are saying you would call the minraise and push any turn?

[jakerc]

looks fine to me. 33 is the only realistic hand i can see him having, and we are still ahead of any A, A3 and any J. i might re-raise him a little bit bigger on the flop though.

[Fly]

This is a call because villain will have a BARE ACE the great majority of the time. Getting it all in here is as standard as standard gets.

[Kowalski]

I see bare aces here a lot of times as well... Either way I don't see how you can get away from this. Make the call, and evaluate his play.

[Haiku]

Why are you betting $4 into an $11.50 pot on the flop? He could be minraising you there just because he thinks your FOS with that bet. Bet more like $9, if he checkminraises you, flat call and get it in on the turn. You're not getting away from this against a short-stacked opponent, but by calling a flop raise and getting it in on the turn, we allow him to put more money in the pot the times he was just making a move without a hand or with a second-best hand.

Unless you have a read on this villain you're not telling us about, I don't see why you bet so little on the flop.

[Bukem_]

You want the money in vs his stack size, but do it in a better manner.

Your line is more likely to get him to fold a 2nd best hand, or fail to build a pot before he realizes its too late for his qj, a5 etc.

[BalugaWhale]

Yeah, i'd be 8 on the flop, call the check minraise, then push over any turn bet.

[pleasefish]

You're being too results-oriented. His range is bigger than just 33. You'll see Ax here very often. Standard call.