When to fold the A's?

[McNeese72]

MP3 is loose passive, so passive, I didn't think he had a raise button until this hand.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero ?

With the read I have on MP3, fold here or call and fold UI on the river.

[Buckmulligan]

i would call and fold the river ui, I think.

[bozlax]

How many hands do you have with MP3? You've never seen him raise; have you ever seen him show down a top-pair hand WITHOUT raising it anywhere? 2nd pair? Two-pair? Trips? Better? Ever seen him semi-bluff bet?

How about a read on SB?

You're, for all intents and purposes, closing the action on the turn, and getting between 6 and 7:1 on a calldown. Meh. I want a strong read before I fold here.

[Fantam]

If MP3 made 2 pair on the turn, then you have 8 outs to improve to a better 2 pair or a set on the river.

Its also possible that MP3 may have made a straight on the turn, in which case you would be drawing dead. He could even have decided to slowplay a set of 3's, in which case you would be drawing thin to 2 outs.

As the pots quite big, I would call the turn raise.

I would then need to have a very good read over a large number of hands, that MP3 was too passive to raise the turn with just top pair, before I folded the river unimproved.

Although I would fold the river, if SB was still in the hand and he bet after a K,T or 8 fell.

[McNeese72]

Boz, I have less than 50 hands but had not seen him raise.

I have about 100 hands on the SB and he is a true LPP fish who will play about anything and call to far then fold.

Okay, here's what I did on the turn. I hate to fold to one bet when I might have had outs if he had two pair.

SB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (11.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero ?

Very bad card. Is the pot too big to fold for one more bet? Or with my read on him, do I fold?

I know I play too weak tight sometimes.

Doc

[threads13]

Getting 12.5:1 I am calling. You probably won't win here much, but I think you will win enough to make the call.

[Big Folder]

You should call the turn, you're getting 10-1 to call and hope to have the board pair. He might have improved to a straight and in that case you're drawing dead or he might have just picked up two-pair with J9, Q9 or a QJ slowplay. I call here for sure, the river I tend to call but I'm pretty bad at calling and giving up UI, which in this case might make sense but its the river and you're so close to a showdown [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Big Folder]

with that river card i fold easily. If he's LPP he's not betting into a 4-card straight board without a straight. Did he have K10?

Either way you are probably done, he most likely has at least two-pair and if he decided to get frisky with a hand you beat then good for him but it would be very very tough to call here.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Boz, I have less than 50 hands but had not seen him raise.

I have about 100 hands on the SB and he is a true LPP fish who will play about anything and call to far then fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

With these reads, the lack of confidence in the "rock" read and the pot-padder read on the other, there is no way I'm folding AA on the turn in this hand. (fwiw, I will frequently play 30-50 hands uber-tight at the beginning of a session in order to make the last 30-50 hands three times as profitable.)

As to the river, you're HU with a player you think is a rock who raised the turn. How does the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] help him? Do you really think he's semi-bluff raising AKo or JT/QT on the turn? If he beat you with a straight, he had it on the turn; otherwise he beat you with a flopped two-pair or set, or you won. OR your read is wrong, and the lesson to be learned is don't trust a small-sample read to tell you how to play a hand.

Finally, as has been said dozens of times, if you never folded AA in micros, you wouldn't be making too big a mistake.

Edit: just noticed you have him as loose uber-passive, not tight uber-passive, but that really doesn't change anything I've said. Passive is the important part.

[McNeese72]

Thanks for the replies, Boz.

I ended up folding on his bet on the river. And that is what caused me to post this hand because it has been bugging the hell out of me for doing that ever since.

Doc