Another Bellagio 2/5 Hand. Big Draw Overbet

[LearnedfromTV]

I have ~475 when this hand starts

One limper, raise to $20 from a loose, somewhat thinking player who is standard B&M "lacks fundamentals but good enough to beat other fundamentally flawed players" player (in a KQ outkicks KT kind of way). Probably capable of folding decent but marginal hands, but I'm not sure. My image is definitely tight aggressive, more tight than aggressive, as not much of my stack has been at risk in the hour or so I've been playing. I'm in the BB and I call with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop ($60) is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I lead for $40, limp-caller folds (don't they always?) and original raiser raises to $100. I announce raise, think for about five seconds, and go allin.

You like?

[multious]

i like

[FGators]

Well played, senor.

[thedustbustr]

mind numbingly standard

[LearnedfromTV]

To clarify what I'm thinking about here/maybe give a direction to the thread...

I think it's almost always good to make this bet if it's a pot-sized bet, barring extreme conditions like someone who is only raising sets or who will always check the turn with an overpair and payoff turn or river.

But this is a bigger than pot-sized bet by a decent margin. It's easy to say I'm close enough to a favorite vs anything that the money in the pot and the chance he folds makes it +EV to push. But at some point, the bet is so oversized that the money in the pot doesn't justify the risk I take of running into a set, especially when when the bet is larger it's much less likely that hands I'm favored over (TT, JJ, A9) call. Before long we get into territory where it makes a big difference that this is QJ hearts rather than JT hearts. Obviously I shouldn't bet-three-bet-push if I have 1K behind. Where's the line?

Also, most decent hand readers always expect this is a draw. At some point that's exploitable unless you really push here with a set too, and even then, they never think you have a set when you have the big draw, so does it matter that you could? This draw isn't too big, it's a dog to AA-QQ and if those hands call the overbet you're probably better off calling (at some stack size - again, where's the line?). 98 being in your range helps, but still, this is so clearly usually a draw. Versus a pot size bet or slightly more, that can't be exploited, but as it gets bigger, maybe it can.

I apologize if this is SSNL stuff. I don't think it is.

[duh]

I think you hit it right on the head....

If you had J10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] then you crush all 1 pair hands ( except A4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ) And you push hoping for a call from an overpair..

With this hand, you have 4 less outs, and 1 less SF out, thus you really need to get a higher flushdraw out of the pot, or ur screwed..

If you just make a huge re raise, Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] might feel lucky and take one off..Sometimes the only way to chase out a nut draw is to overbet shove...

So i think either way, you gotta shove it in, either for value or for FE.

[DMACM]

I think this is a good line here.

[O_Witty]

i dont like it, looks like a semi-bluff all day. a thinking player will pick this off hopefully ur table image gives you enough fe

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like it, looks like a semi-bluff all day. a thinking player will pick this off hopefully ur table image gives you enough fe

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm too lazy to do an EV calc.. but he doesn't need hardly any fold equity to make this play +EV.

[Bill King]

ever thought about folding preflop?

what are you looking for postflop? this is the only type of flop that you really have going for you.


but now that we're past that... i think this is a good play.. and even if you just call you're probably getting the money in sooner than later.. do it now while you still can get fold equity from him.