Is sports betting beatable?

34TheTruth34 · #1 06-26-2006, 05:15 PM

This is something I've spent more and more time pondering this year. I understand the basic sports betting theories: if the line is correct (or close enough, factoring in the bookie's juice), then in the long-run, the bet would have -EV. That's not really what I'm talking about, though. I'm also not talking about wacky props, arbs, scalps, bonuses, etc. etc. etc.

I guess what I'm getting at is whether or not it's possible to pick winners day in and day out given the lines that are available at the offshore sites. Sports betting forums are full of handicappers who were previously thought of as long term winners who are losing. I understand that they could just be getting unlucky this year. But is it possible they were just getting lucky in the first place?

Case in point would be Bucsfan67. I assume most of you know who he is. For those that don't, he is a baseball handicapper with an amazing past record. Over the 2004 and 2005 seasons, he's bet over 1000 games each year and both times won well over 100 units for the season. This year he is losing. Actually, dating back to last September, he's behind over his last 700ish bets. Is it possible that he was never a winning handicapper to begin with?

What I'm getting with all this is the following: Am I wasting my time trying to learn to handicap baseball games? How about following so-called winning handicappers?

For those of you who have beaten sports betting consistently, how is it done? Can it be done? I'll be intersted to hear responses from some of the more popular members of the 2+2 sports betting forum...

mrbaseball · #2 06-26-2006, 05:44 PM

Yes, it's beatable but there can be big variance. Bankroll management is important. I don't who this Bucsfan guy is or if he's good and experiencing a bad run or a guy who ran lucky. Both are possible. I only bet baseball though and I think other sports can be much tougher. And it is time comsuming if you do it correctly. If you just wanna glance down the lines and make some picks you are doomed. It takes me an hour or two to cap an entire full board but I usually cross off a bunch of games with a cursory glance for various reasons to shorten the process and concentrate on the games that "may" seem to have value. I use a mechanical, mathematical approach based on mostly current statistics.

dixie_flyer · #3 06-26-2006, 05:55 PM

<<I use a mechanical, mathematical approach based on mostly current statistics.>>

out of curiosity, which stats do you most pay attention to? Ones related to the pitchers?

34TheTruth34 · #4 06-26-2006, 08:11 PM

thanks for the response. how do you know it's beatable?

mrbaseball · #5 06-26-2006, 09:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
out of curiosity, which stats do you most pay attention to? Ones related to the pitchers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I use a variety of team, offensive and pitching statistics with a weighting system.

mrbaseball · #6 06-26-2006, 09:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how do you know it's beatable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I've beat it every year since the late 90's when I started doing it seriously.

LargeCents · #7 06-26-2006, 09:46 PM

I think it's in the FAQ, but aggressively going after bonuses can be profitable, making a profit on pure handicapping can be much tougher. Then, of course, is the requisite rigorous management of variance.

guids · #8 06-26-2006, 09:49 PM

Imo, and Im not a sportsbettor, is that yes it is beatable. Not glamorous, and there is a loot of footwork involved, but if you are CONSTANTLY searching for arbitrages, middles, bonus whoring, finding bad lines with local bookies, etc, you can hustle together a bankroll. Simply handicapping a sport and being able to beat it is tough.

34TheTruth34 · #9 06-26-2006, 10:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how do you know it's beatable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I've beat it every year since the late 90's when I started doing it seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you share some of the numbers please? Things like # of bets, units profit, winning %, etc. would be interesting. There's no need to discuss $$$$ if that would bother you. thanks.

RikaKazak · #10 06-27-2006, 12:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the response. how do you know it's beatable?

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you know poker is beatable???? Because some people have a huge sample and have been doing it for YEARS. I know one guy that's been doing it for over 30 years. (obviously not online, but live, with a focus on horses)