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#1
05-30-2006, 06:17 PM
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Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
In this section (p53-54), it says to pick your bet size to maximize total possible expectation, even if you it is possible that you are giving the stronger of your opponents draws the right odds to call (am I allow to quote or paraphrase from the book?). This seems like that it would suffer from some sort of adverse selection, where only the hands that you are giving correct odds to call with would call, and the ones that you are giving bad odds to would fold, leaving you with only the -EV part of the equation.
I assume that this hinges on the fact that your opponent is so bad that he won't realize that he is making a mistake in calling with weak draws... but this seems to be a bit optimistic. Doesn't the opponent have a superior advantage here from knowing which draw he has (how many outs, at least), so that you have to bet more to offset this? But then it makes it even less likely that his bad hands will call, yikes! Forgive me if this is explained later on, but this part stuck out at me. 
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#2
05-31-2006, 05:38 PM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
I've read further and I still havn't found an answer to this... can anyone illuminate this for me please?
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#4
06-01-2006, 12:42 AM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
yes particularly if you are against an aggressive player that may reraise a weak bet with a draw. By making a weak bet you've induced your opponent to make a bigger mistake than simply calling a strong bet.
They can see you are a good player and think you may be making a small defensive bet because you have a drawing hand, so they come over the top thinking you know enough about drawing odds to fold. They assume this because they respect your play and "know" you would have made a bet large enough to cut off the odds of any drawing hand if you already had a made hand.
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#5
06-01-2006, 01:39 AM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
[ QUOTE ]
Read p.52. Your EV is higher if you occasionally bet too little than if you blow them out of the hand. [/ QUOTE ] Right, but if you bet enough to make calling with the weaker draws incorrect, won't your astute opponents fold those draws and only continue with the ones that are profitable for them... making it -EV?
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#6
06-01-2006, 02:38 AM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Read p.52. Your EV is higher if you occasionally bet too little than if you blow them out of the hand. [/ QUOTE ] Right, but if you bet enough to make calling with the weaker draws incorrect, won't your astute opponents fold those draws and only continue with the ones that are profitable for them... making it -EV? [/ QUOTE ] With dead money in the pot both the bet and the call can be +EV.
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#7
06-01-2006, 03:03 AM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
The text recommends the smaller bet only if he will probably incorrectly call .
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#8
06-07-2006, 03:32 AM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Read p.52. Your EV is higher if you occasionally bet too little than if you blow them out of the hand. [/ QUOTE ] Right, but if you bet enough to make calling with the weaker draws incorrect, won't your astute opponents fold those draws and only continue with the ones that are profitable for them... making it -EV? [/ QUOTE ] I haven't read the book yet, but this sort of thing is just running into a basic game theory question of how rational is the villain. If your opponent will never call draws without proper odds, then sure. However, if you're playing against opponents who don't make mistakes, and only make "correct" plays, then the game isn't going to be +EV. Essentially, the two of you will both be playing "correctly", whatever that means, and there will be no positive or negative expected value. All poker is based off the assumption that your opponents are not playing ideally, and that you can exploit their errors in the long run. Without that assumption, poker is little different than craps.
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#9
06-24-2006, 11:12 PM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
[ QUOTE ]
The text recommends the smaller bet only if he will probably incorrectly call . [/ QUOTE ] does this mean to make the smallest bet possible that would give him incorrect drawing odds? Say theres $100 in the pot and you hold A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a board of 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and you suspect villan maybe on flush draw and you wont call a river bet if another club comes. Should you bet $40 here making the pot $140 and he has to call $40 giving you 140:40 giving him a decent price, but not the 4-1 odds he needs to hit his flush with one card to come? thanks
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#10
06-24-2006, 11:34 PM
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Re: Question About NLT&P \"Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands\"
no, bet more because you don't know if he has as straight draw, flush draw, gutshot or split pair. This is mentioned in the book, although I can't quote page numbers because I don' thave the book with me at the moment.
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