|
|
#1
06-14-2006, 10:11 PM
|
|||
|
|||
BlackJack Whoring --> 17% change?
Played several casinos with BlackJack bonusses.
I played 6000 (!) bets. The edge for the casinos was 0.50% at the 'worst' one. So I should have lost 30 bets. I lost 145 bets. Like the casinos had a 2.41% edge. Is the change of that happening 17%? 
|
|
#6
06-15-2006, 03:04 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: BlackJack Whoring --> 17% change?
Blackjack as a whole is a coinflip. If you don't have a large sample of each individual scenario (6 vs 10, 5 vs 7, 3 vs 4, etc) then you don't come close to hitting the expected values. Besides, 6000 bets is maybe 3-4 casino bonuses, so you can understand the general tone.
|
|
#7
06-15-2006, 04:57 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: BlackJack Whoring --> 17% change?
KUJustin is referring to the fact that, flipping a coin, you'd expect to see a standard deviation of about 40 after 6000 trials - so, at first glace, this looks like about a -3 sigma event. By no means impossible, but enough to count as some pretty bad luck.
|
|
#8
06-15-2006, 05:18 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: BlackJack Whoring --> 17% change?
[ QUOTE ]
KUJustin is referring to the fact that, flipping a coin, you'd expect to see a standard deviation of about 40 after 6000 trials - so, at first glace, this looks like about a -3 sigma event. By no means impossible, but enough to count as some pretty bad luck. [/ QUOTE ] Only a 0.25% chance of it happening, right? 3 sigmas is 100-99.5= 0.5%, but you have to divide by two because there's times where he will run so well that he'll end up 3 standard deviations ABOVE the average, which of course he'd love. Is my math right? I'm trying to get good at this stuff.
|
|
#10
06-15-2006, 08:20 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: BlackJack Whoring --> 17% change?
[ QUOTE ]
Not sure what planet you guys are on but 6000 is a pretty hefty sample size especially for something that's pretty close to a coinflip. [/ QUOTE ] A single hand of blackjack is only a coinflip in theory, not in practice.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
