Anyone In The Mood for AA Big Fold?

gaming_mouse · #1 06-17-2006, 03:03 AM

Villain is 26/17/10.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, SB folds, UTG folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

 After he raises, I know he has either 66 or 77 or a fd containing big cards most likely. I thought it was between calling down and 3betting to charge a fd. When he caps I am fairly sure he has 66/77, but that 10 AF.... plust there's always the outside chance of KK/QQ weirdly played PF

River: (14.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Can the chance that he capped a spade fd and refused to checked behind, or that he has KK, merit a call on the river? What is the point of hand reading if you are going to call here? Also, how about the turn 3b?

ILOVEPOKER929 · #2 06-17-2006, 04:50 AM

I dont usually pay attention to stats that are this out of wack, I generally just assume something is not right and pay more attention to that opponent and see how he actually plays.

If these stats are real, then you really have nothing to think about, you simply call down the turn cap and move on to the next hand. The idea of folding should never enter your mind.

About the turn 3 bet, I would not make this play without a strong read. This stat read is not a strong enough read for me becuz I simply dont trust these numbers, so I would call down from the turn raise.

Nietzsche · #3 06-17-2006, 07:02 AM

You need to include the number of hands here. If this number is over 200 you call the river and don't worry too much about putting him on specific hands. His range is huge then.

LuckyDevil · #4 06-17-2006, 08:18 AM

I don't like your turn 3 bet. For the same amount you could have seen a showdown.

veganmav · #5 06-17-2006, 08:40 AM

the 19 agg fac is innacurate plus, texas holdem isn't about making huge folds on the river for 1 bet.

my 2 cents

Jstyal · #6 06-17-2006, 09:51 AM

Sucks that he capped the turn. As played, no I don't fold. I c/c river.

Did he have TT? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

veganmav · #7 06-17-2006, 10:09 AM

10 agg factor is innacurate* i typo'd above.
but yes 10 is innacurate

Jeffage · #8 06-17-2006, 10:27 AM

Eight handed is not shorthanded. You can't fold this...he might have just called with a pocked pair like JJ or 10's pre or poss has something like AhJh (or spades) and is being nutty or whatever. He even could be going ape with something like A7s though that's unliklely.

Pay it off.

Jeff

Nate tha\\\' Great · #9 06-17-2006, 12:32 PM

Yeah, I agree with the consesnsus that this one isn't that close. I think you'll be good, I dunno, 15% of the time here, which is plenty more than the pot is laying you.

gaming_mouse · #10 06-17-2006, 01:32 PM

First, couple things. This belongs in full, but I'm so used to posting here that I just forgot.

Second, yes, I should have mentioned the number of hands in the sample for the 10AF... only 35. So obviously that is inaccurate, as veganmav pointed.

My apologies for those things.

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I agree with the consesnsus that this one isn't that close. I think you'll be good, I dunno, 15% of the time here, which is plenty more than the pot is laying you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nate, and Jeff too, do you guys like or dislike the turn 3b? Considering it now, I think it was a big mistake. His stats, even from a limited sample, suggest that he is not coldcalling things like KJs, right? Not sure about this though....