99 flop action

[NIX]

Only been at the table about 2 orbits, so my reads aren't the greatest yet.

BB has seemed somewhat tight so far and hasn't done anything to draw my attention.

UTG+1 has been 18/5/.6 over 62 hands. Some of his preflop raises have been erratic. He's open-limped QQ in MP, yet has raised A2 from UTG. His postflop aggression seems misplaced too. I've seen him be aggressive at times where it seems reasonable for how he's played the hand, and then I've also seen him check down an overpair as well as cold calling a PFR with KK and then check/calling down on a ten high board.

MP3 seems loose and moderately aggressive so far. I don't really know what he bets with, but I've seen him donk MPNK and then call down on a scary board.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8SB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 3-bets</font>, Hero ???

Is the flop donk worth it? I don't know for sure if anyone will bet (preferably with a hand weaker than mine) so that I can check/raise although it may happen. Also, where to go from here since it's two back to me on the flop and my hand is probably stronger than how I've played it.

[Niediam]

If based upon what you have seen of MP3 so far if you think he could be 3betting here with something random like AT then I'd go ahead and cap. If he is probably only going to 3bet here with a solid holding then fold.

[fretelöo]

I would probably fold. To be honest, you have no idea where you're at as a "somewhat tight" BB raised you and a "moderately aggressive" MP3 who you don't know what cards he does that with 3bet you. That's a lot of aggression for an overpair. BB could have AJ+ and hope for a cheap showdown, MP3 could have cc 66 pf, he could also have AT as suggested by Niediam or 78s or some other stuff.
As it's _almost_ the same ammount back to you as you spend already (3SB to get this far, now 2 to pay + turn and river), I'd judge it not worth it.
They seem both willing enough to continue, so I'd fold and hope to see their cards at showdown.

About the initial flop-bet. I would bet. If it was checked through and the turn brought a 9, 8, 2, 3, you'd have wished to have bet.

[pena]

Smells like overpair or set (44+). I'd fold since I have only 2 outs max.

[tiltaholic]

i don't think i'm betting this flop, and am hoping to checkraise. but then again i might be biased by the flop action you showed. not sure what i'd do if i checked and it was 2 cold me to...maybe i'll check 3-bet and lead the turn assuming a blank falls. just not sure what a blank is -- nothing that completes a draw or an overcard....hmm maybe folding is better. i dunno.

[BionicComma]

This is an easy fold. A raise from the BB on a board like this could be anything from 2 pair to a straight. The MP's 3 bet makes it even easier. What are you hoping to hit that will win this pot for you when its already 2 back on the flop?

[tiltaholic]

incidentally i really wish jrz would post the correct flop play

[Befolder]

I like a c/r on the flop since we weren't the aggressor pf. If raised again, I try to get it to showdown cheaply, but could let it go if the straight completes.

[NIX]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy fold. A raise from the BB on a board like this could be anything from 2 pair to a straight. The MP's 3 bet makes it even easier. What are you hoping to hit that will win this pot for you when its already 2 back on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not so much as to what I'm thinking about hitting to win the pot, it's more that I'm not convinced I've seen enough to know that I'm behind yet. If I had better reads, it would make things easier, but I don't have enough hands against those two villains yet to be sure. If I 3bet preflop and I got this action, I'd be more convinced that I'm behind since I really showed strength, although I don't think that's that good of an idea either since I'm probably behind UTG+1's PFR range and I'll be stuck in a potentially 3 way pot, OOP against a tricky player and an agro player with 99.

As for BB's range, yes, a set/two pair/straight are all possible with 44-66/65s-54s/87s, but what about 88/77 for an overpair with a straight draw and a less likely 33 or potentially A6s (maybe A5s) or another 6x, 76s/75s? For MP3's range, I really don't think he has two UI overs, but may have a range similar to BB's with possible addition of 43s, A4s-A5s, and maybe some others (A6/K5s/etc.).

As for the for the flop donk, if the PFRer was a standard player, yeah, I'd go for the check/raise. However in this case, he may still have something strong like JJ-KK and may not bet it or if he does bet it and I check/raise, I'm just attempting to protect my own 2 outer with potentially slowing him down and getting me a cheap showdown. In my mind, I'm approaching 'who are you going to check/raise' territory.

Finally, the idea of calling and evaluating on the turn may be kinda ugly since potentially any card that isn't a 9 is a scare card. Some (T,2) are safer than others, but not necessarily safe.

Not sure if these ideas contribute to the discussion at all.

[SatoriKid]

Grunch

Flop donk is okay.

Fold when it gets back to you. You're behind to a bigger overpair, a made straight, or a set most of the time.

It's going to be expensive to find out and even if you hit your 9, it's going to be hard to bet with a lot of confidence, so your implied odds are shot if you hit your set.