For the weak tighties

sharpie · #1 05-24-2006, 06:15 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3.
4 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero (poster) 3-bets, 3 folds, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises

Webster · #2 05-24-2006, 07:16 AM

weak tighties? That hand was just dumb luck and played poorly.

loose/silly

NWCougar · #3 05-24-2006, 07:22 AM

this just looks like needless spewing

sharpie · #4 05-24-2006, 07:57 AM

Could you guys elaborate? Do you agree with calling the flop? What about raising the river?

To me the questionable street is the turn. I figured an unknown could be continuation betting here with AK/AQ type hands often enough to see another card, even though they do have 2 more outs against me now. Can anyone give me an estimate on what percentage of the time an AK/AQ type hand is leading the turn if they hold that?

Edit: It does seem like an easy turn fold now I look at it closer.

Dustangel · #5 05-24-2006, 08:04 AM

Do I see EV- written all over that post?

NWCougar · #6 05-24-2006, 08:07 AM

Preflop - fold ( this is very player dependent, if he has a high PFR % then isolating him is fine )
Flop - fold
Turn - fold, you're chasing the ass end of a gutshot for 6.6-1

sharpie · #7 05-24-2006, 08:11 AM

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Preflop - fold ( this is very player dependent, if he has a high PFR % then isolating him is fine )

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Uh, I posted PF. Folding is out of the question. Raising is better than calling.

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Flop - fold

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Sure I'm not in great shape even when he has the hand I want him to have, but there's dead money in the pot and it's an easy fold when he improves.

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Turn - fold, you're chasing the ass end of a gutshot for 6.6-1

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I agree with this, except the part about chasing an ass end of a gutshot. It's actually a split, and I called because I thought he might be betting AK/AQ type hands, but it appears I was wrong.

naMruM · #8 05-24-2006, 08:11 AM

Um, I can't see much that you did right here.

I'm not a fan of the 3-bet isolation play with smallish medium pairs against any kind of decent player that can get away from UI overcards. Unless you spike your set, you're likely to pay off the whole way to a bigger pair. So I don't love your raise preflop.

When he caps you, what range do you put him on? AA-TT, AKs, AK, AQs maybe. You are pretty far behind on the flop against that range, especially with two broadway cards flopping and you holding an underpair to the board. Even if you are ahead on the flop, your opponent would have as many as 10 outs against you, and certainly 6 very likely clean ones in his mind.

The turn gives you minimal help, you could spike a 9 to chop if your opponent doesn't have exactly KQ (unlikely). You can't really think you have pot odds to continue.

You caught your miracle card.

You seem to be trying to play deceptively here, representing a hand you don't have. Why do you think you need to play this way at 3/6?

Overall: horrible decisions, great result. Flag this in your poker tracker as a favorite under the category "Spewing With The Poker Gods' Favor".

Dustangel · #9 05-24-2006, 08:25 AM

you're probably even money calling 1:4.5 on the preflop against a preflop raiser, but raising gives you much worse odds

to me, raising is out of the question and if the villain is any decent player I'd rather not call as well

sharpie · #10 05-24-2006, 08:57 AM

To those that say fold the flop, it's not as cut and dry as you think. Giving him a range of 99+, AQs, AK we have about 27% equity on the flop.

Let's simplify things and pretend a bet goes in on every street regardless. There's 9SB in the pot + 5SB from villain which is 14SB. We also put in 5SB. This gives us effective odds of roughly 14:5, or 2.8:1. Going by this we need to have about 26% equity to carry on, so it appears a very close decision, and rake might make it negative EV.

Now back in the real world he might decide to check/fold the river UI, or a broadway card falls and we end up not having to put in 5SB.

Let's say he never puts a bet in on the river when we're ahead, so the final pot size is 12SB when we win it (if this were the case we'd have an easy fold on the river and our effective odds would look even better since we're only putting in 3SB).

Let's also say we fold whenever a queen, king, or ace falls. Since he has 10 outs one of these cards will fall on the turn or river ~22% of the time each street. So we're effectively putting into the pot:

1SB + (.78 * 2SB) + (.78 * .78 * 2SB) = ~3.77SB.

This gives us 12:3.77 effective odds, or ~3.18:1

Since we only need around 24% equity to continue, unless the rake eats into it alot it seems folding the flop is bad. Also sometimes we'll get a bet out of AK/AQ on the river when they decide to bluff it or we value bet them, so the expected pot size we would win might be a little bit higher.