($4.40) Well Concealed Nut Flush On Turn, But What Line?

[FakeKramer]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t3665)
MP2 (t1260)
MP3 (t695)
CO (t1565)
Hero (t3445)
SB (t1390)
BB (t795)
UTG (t2705)
UTG+1 (t3615)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t70, MP1 calls t70.

Flop: (t345) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t90</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t250</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t160.

Turn: (t845) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero....

[Dan R]

I would bet, probably in the range of a bit over half the pot. There is a good chance that he has an Ace himself, (or other decent hand) and is willing to be busted with it. When he calls your flop raise I would say his most likely hand is an Ace with a poor kicker. I do not see many people in lower buy-in MTTs getting away from a paired Ace. So get action now. If the river came a fourth spade he may be able to convince himself to fold an Ace.

[tubasteve]

I'm probably making my standard turn value bet of about t500-t650. I might err to the low end to get a call.

[EnderFFX]

You have position, you raised pre-flop, I'd check and hope he is willing to make a play against you on the river, or catches (2 pair, or maybe even trips) and will fire against you. I think you scare him off with a bet on the turn.

The other option is to make a 1/2 bet flop, and hope he sticks around /tries to move you off your hand.

[NoahSD]

I don't think the average player in the 4/180s folds much here.. so I lead. I might full pot cause he looks like he's in call down mode.. but 600 might be better.

[Pat Southern]

$4 tournament+nuts=bet pot

Raise more PF. Otherwise, I'm not really sure what you are trying to accomplish with that raise.

Given the play, you need to bet on the turn for a few reasons. First of all, a lot of cards might kill your action. Second of all, I'm not sure where this tendency to hit the brakes when you hit the perfect card came from, but generally, I don't like it. I especially don't like it when we're in positon. You should be looking to build a pot. Make him make a huge mistake on the river. Put yourself in a position to stack your opponent. All these things are better accomplished when you bet on the turn. You make the most money here when you force Villain to put money in the pot on all streets with a second best hand. If he folds to your bet here, well, then you weren't going to make much anyway.

[Brandonjp13]

I bet here... not alot but something I think he'd call and still be thinking that he wants to show the hand down. I've been playing alot of these lately and if you start dropping huge bets even donks get worried. drag him along to the river and then put him in.

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
$4 tournament+nuts=bet pot

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll lose out on a lot of value long term if you always bet the pot here. Villian calling a 160 chip raise on the flop is a lot different than villian calling an 845 chip turn bet.

I say bet half the pot to build it for a river bet.

zip

[THEOSU]

how can a nut flush be well concealed?


Oh, and bet this obv.