True Gigabet's Dilemma Spot?

[Jack-in-a-box]

What do you think guys? If I busto the reraiser I will have the stack twice any other stack on the table and it will be the bubble [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t3015)
CO (t2285)
Hero (t3280)
SB (t2255)
BB (t2665)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t500</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t2255 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, Hero calls t1755

.

[KPL]

No way, just fold

[geo8o2]

fold

[Finnisher]

Giving JTs 35% equity against SB's range calling will be -2.6% with ICM. Calling+winning is 34.11 so you'd have to bully the bubble enough to get your equity to 34.11 + 2.6/0.35 = 41.54 when you win. Obv thinking about it like that makes no sense cos you have to find what the "implied" values of folding and losing are too. Maybe 41.5 is actually close to the value you need for calling+winning with 35% equity. If you'd win an equal amount of chips from every player you'd have to win 3000 chips on the bubble. That's a lot considering that you have to do it every time. But only thinking about the future $EV until the end of bubble is also kinda stupid. But I'm pretty sure you can't bully the bubble enough to cover the -2.6% ICM suggests calling is.

[fluorescenthippo]

omg call with any two

[xPeru]

[ QUOTE ]
Giving JTs 35% equity against SB's range calling will be -2.6% with ICM. Calling+winning is 34.11 so you'd have to bully the bubble enough to get your equity to 34.11 + 2.6/0.35 = 41.54 when you win. Obv thinking about it like that makes no sense cos you have to find what the "implied" values of folding and losing are too. Maybe 41.5 is actually close to the value you need for calling+winning with 35% equity. If you'd win an equal amount of chips from every player you'd have to win 3000 chips on the bubble. That's a lot considering that you have to do it every time. But only thinking about the future $EV until the end of bubble is also kinda stupid. But I'm pretty sure you can't bully the bubble enough to cover the -2.6% ICM suggests calling is.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

Superb response Finnisher. This is what makes this forum so powerful.

[Slim Pickens]

No, not really.

[xPeru]

[ QUOTE ]
No, not really.

[/ QUOTE ]

Er what did I miss Slim? Admittedly, I haven't checked the math, but Finnisher is surely good enough not to screw it up?

[KPL]

[ QUOTE ]
Giving JTs 35% equity against SB's range calling will be -2.6% with ICM. Calling+winning is 34.11 so you'd have to bully the bubble enough to get your equity to 34.11 + 2.6/0.35 = 41.54 when you win. Obv thinking about it like that makes no sense cos you have to find what the "implied" values of folding and losing are too. Maybe 41.5 is actually close to the value you need for calling+winning with 35% equity. If you'd win an equal amount of chips from every player you'd have to win 3000 chips on the bubble. That's a lot considering that you have to do it every time. But only thinking about the future $EV until the end of bubble is also kinda stupid. But I'm pretty sure you can't bully the bubble enough to cover the -2.6% ICM suggests calling is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I'm stubid. What are you really saying, in English (or Swedish [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img])

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, not really.

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Er what did I miss Slim? Admittedly, I haven't checked the math, but Finnisher is surely good enough not to screw it up?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he was responding to OP. I agree with folding.