200NL cash overpair turn decision rr pot

[Novles]

We've been going back and forth quite a bit. He's running about 60/30 overall, and 85/65 from SB. I've been reraising quite a bit recently and he's either folded pf or to a flop bet. I've reraised him probably like 3 out of the last 6 times he opened, and we didn't see a turn in any of those hands. Earlier in the match when we had 100bb, I doubled him up when I rr with K6, flop K9x with a flush draw. I led flop, he raised, I shoved, he had 99. Since then, I've just been winning a bunch of small/medium pots to get to where we are. What's your plan here?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
2 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

<font color="black">Hero (BB): $340.50</font>
<font color="black">SB: $272.50</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB raises to $6.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21.00</font>, SB calls $15.00.

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($42) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $30.00</font>, SB calls $30.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($102) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero?

[Ellsworth T]

I would make a blocking bet of 25.

[Novles]

[ QUOTE ]
I would make a blocking bet of 25.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

[creedofhubris]

He's got to think you might have an ace here b/c of your reraise preflop; this is a bad card for him to bluff. However, if your lead is weak enough he may well view that as license to blast you out of the pot.

Unfortunately, his flop peel range includes a lot of aces, so he has a straight here a fair amount of the time, and he'll let you know that for sure if you lead out. However, since you don't have any hope to improve to beat a straight, learning that you're beat is not a problem.

So you should be able to bet out $55-60 and fold to a raise.

A more conservative play is to check/fold. It depends how predictable he is postflop. If he's very bluffy you should probably just give up, since you can't fade a raise.

[MasterLJ]

C/F is totally fine here.

[RicherThanRichie]

[ QUOTE ]
C/F is totally fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the turn checks thru is a non-spade river a c/f as well?

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
C/F is totally fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the turn checks thru is a non-spade river a c/f as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking turn concedes defeat, so yes.

You need some pretty strong reads to continue.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
C/F is totally fine here.

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If the turn checks thru is a non-spade river a c/f as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not productive to bluff if a spade hits. If we win we had the best hand anyway.

Once we've checked turn only card that will change river from c/f is a 9, which makes it c/c.

[MychCumstien]

[ QUOTE ]

So you should be able to bet out $55-60 and fold to a raise.

A more conservative play is to check/fold. It depends how predictable he is postflop. If he's very bluffy you should probably just give up, since you can't fade a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going to bet, I don't think you need to bet 55-60. I think you could get the same result with a bet of roughly 1/3 the pot. It will look like a value bet, i.e. like you just hit the str8 and won't look too weak. If he has the Ace, he obviously calls. I think bets of less than 1/3 the pot look too weak, and you'll get raised off of them if you try.

I think I would personally check here, i.e. C/F to a bet. He's going to have the ace here much of the time I think. And if he doesn't, I seriously doubt he's bluffing into that board, as in his mind you could easily have the ace as well, and be setting up for a C/R.

I say check here, and see what he does. Fold to a bet IMO.

[Novles]

thanks for the responses. I bet $65, he minraised and I folded.