Do big underdogs have a chance in FF?

[areinitz]

I'm a big underdog this wk, according to the projected stats on yahoo, I'm a 21 pt underdog (90pts to 111). Since I am fairly new to FF, I am wondering if big upsets like that happen very often.

[Russ M.]

post lineups

[DrunkIrish05]

its one week of nfl stats, variance is pretty high

[PokerFink]

How on earth did you end up being that big of a dog? Is your whole team on a bye or something? That's a monster gap.

BTW their projections suck.

[FUJItheFISH]

[ QUOTE ]

BTW their projections suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't listen to projections.

[crockpot]

yes, absolutely.

i'm not sure what the exact numbers on this are, but i would guess you have at least a 20% shot at winning.

edit: assuming the projections are accurate, which they are often not.

[Rick Diesel]

I've found Yahoo projections to be pretty weak. If you post the lineups, people will be better able to assess your chances.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
How on earth did you end up being that big of a dog? Is your whole team on a bye or something? That's a monster gap.

BTW their projections suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been no less than 16 point dogs in my first 2 weeks on Yahoo. Average score per week per team is 65 points. I'm 2-0, although I am 7/12 in overall scoring.

While I think their predictions are somewhat reasonable, it's such high variance week to week that the predictions don't hold much weight.

If your team of bums score TD's and your opponents team of studs find it hard to find the endzone, you're going to win.

[areinitz]

Yes I do have 3 players on a buy wk.

QB M. Bulger
(StL - QB) @Ari Sun
3:15 pm 7.53 0.00
WR H. Ward
(Pit - WR) P Cin Sun
12:00 pm 10.67 0.00
WR A. Bryant
(SF - WR) Phi Sun
3:15 pm 7.89 0.00
WR Ro. Williams
(Det - WR) GB Sun
12:00 pm 10.85 0.00
RB R. Johnson
(Cin - RB) @Pit Sun
12:00 pm 9.15 0.00
RB R. Brown
(Mia - RB) Ten Sun
12:00 pm 18.26 0.00
TE De. Clark
(Chi - TE) @Min Sun
12:00 pm 5.38 0.00
K J. Kasay
(Car - K) @TB Sun
12:00 pm 8.46 0.00
DEF Washington
(Was - DEF) @Hou Sun
12:00 pm 12.60 0.00
Total 90.79 0.


His roster:

Status Projected Actual
QB D. McNabb
(Phi - QB) @SF Sun
3:15 pm 19.00 0.00
WR C. Johnson
(Cin - WR) @Pit Sun
12:00 pm 11.01 0.00
WR Ro. Smith
(Den - WR) P @NE Sun
7:15 pm 8.36 0.00
WR S. Smith
(Car - WR) Q @TB Sun
12:00 pm 14.81 0.00
RB R. Bush
(NO - RB) Atl Mon
7:30 pm 13.72 0.00
RB B. Westbrook
(Phi - RB) Q @SF Sun
3:15 pm 15.98 0.00
TE M. Colston
(NO - WR,TE) Atl Mon
7:30 pm 3.99 0.00
K J. Elam
(Den - K) @NE Sun
7:15 pm 9.22 0.00
DEF Pittsburgh
(Pit - DEF) Cin Sun
12:00 pm 14.97 0.00
Total 111.06 0.00

[toohigh]

Projections suck dude. They should never be relied on for making lineup decisions or predicting the outcomes of certain games.

How many times have you read some typical "Start of the Week" article by a so-called FF "expert", claiming that a certain player is a LOCK for the week, and sure enough, you start him and he underachieves? Point being, you can never accurately predict how many points a player will score week to week. Some players go for more yards, others more TDs, and it is hard to guess which area they will excel in for a given week.

FWIW, I think you win this week.