Help: should I hedge the 4th leg of my teaser?

CTKid · #1 09-18-2006, 12:32 AM

Motivated by Daliman's idea I bet all possible 2, 3 and 4 team teasers with these games:

GB +8
Minn +8
Chicago -2.5
Jags +7.5

I flat bet 1 unit on all of them (6 2-team +100, 4 3-team +180, 1 4-team +300).

If Jags don't cover, I finish down -2.2 units. If they do cover I finish up 16.2 units.

I got in on Jags +1.5. Its now +3.

Should I be hedging this with a bet on the Steelers? How do I figure out the optimal play?

Thanks in advance.

Bishop22 · #2 09-18-2006, 12:42 AM

Hedging will be -ev because you would have to lay -3. It would be different if the line moved the other way. I am in same boat, locked in +1 unit profit, +35 units if Jax covers..let it ride baby!

Trencherman · #3 09-18-2006, 01:04 AM

Pinnacle's NFL Alternate High offers Pit -7.5 at +222. This presents an ideal bet for hedging against your current set of teasers. To calculate an "exact" hedge, note that your outstanding bets consist of 3 units to win 3 on 2-teamers, 3 units to win 5.4 on 3-teamers, and 1 unit to win 3 on a 4-teamer. This translates to 7 units to win 11.4 or effective odds of about +163 on Jacksonville +7.5. Thus, a hedge of ~5.714 units on Pit -7.5 +222 guarantees a win of ~5.686 units.

Assani Fisher · #4 09-18-2006, 01:24 AM

If you didn't want to do a 4 game teaser, then why not just do a 3 game teaser to begin with?

I never understand this.

PropPlayer · #5 09-18-2006, 01:30 AM

I put $40 on a 6 team teaser and have Jacksonville +8.5 on my final leg. I had $40 in a book I haven’t touched in months (They increased the juice on my plays and cut my limits, the limit is fine for straight plays but the juice is not) so I decided to just throw it on a long shot, was going to do a future bet but couldn’t find any long shots I liked.

I love the Jags +8.5 (Just the same +7.5) I would sit on this bet no matter what the circumstances but if the units are very meaningful for you then go ahead and hedge it, but if so you probably should not have placed the bet in the first place.

sublime · #6 09-18-2006, 01:42 AM

as the case with just about every single 'hedge' situation, you only want to bet the steelers if you feel they offer value. this is the most EV way to gamble on anything. put money in +EV situations and avoid -EV situations. however, occasionly you will encounter situations where making a -EV move makes sense for psychological situations. this could be one of those situations, or another common one is buying on/off the 7 in CFB or in certain subest in the NFL where it may not actually be the long term best thing to do. however the psychological benefits of winning that extra game probably outweigh the 1-2 cents you may be losing. a perfect example of that is this past weekend. both me and a betting partner had BYU. i had +7 -110 and +6.5 -105, he had +7.5 with extra juice (-125 i think). over the long term, we will both probably show the same ROI% with this bet(perhaps mine a tad higher, this is debatable), but he had a winner this weekend while i had a push and a loser. hes happy, im not.

now, the predicament you are in is the result of either betting too much on the 3/4 teamers or too little on the 2 teamers. you want to avoid this in the future as you are now in a situation where you have FAR TOO BIG a bet in relation to your bankroll. this is important, so remember the spot you are in now being 'forced' to place a bet you may not want to.

what you do is up to you, but i would suggest finding a good PIT bet and hitting it ASAP (WWTS has -2.5 -105) but not betting too much.

Trencherman · #7 09-18-2006, 01:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pinnacle's NFL Alternate High offers Pit -7.5 at +222. This presents an ideal bet for hedging against your current set of teasers. To calculate an "exact" hedge, note that your outstanding bets consist of 3 units to win 3 on 2-teamers, 3 units to win 5.4 on 3-teamers, and 1 unit to win 3 on a 4-teamer. This translates to 7 units to win 11.4 or effective odds of about +163 on Jacksonville +7.5. Thus, a hedge of ~5.714 units on Pit -7.5 +222 guarantees a win of ~5.686 units.

[/ QUOTE ]
To be clear, the guaranteed ~5.686 units is in addition to the 4.8 units that have already been settled. The overall unit gain would therefore be something like 10.5 units.

ImBen · #8 09-18-2006, 02:28 AM

You're getting 7.36 to 1 on a 70% shot. A half Kelly bet on this would be almost 1/3 of your bankroll. Unless your bet was greater than this or you are pathologically risk averse, you would be ill advised to bet Pitt -7.5 just to hedge.

Trencherman · #9 09-18-2006, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 7.36 to 1 on a 70% shot. A half Kelly bet on this would be almost 1/3 of your bankroll. Unless your bet was greater than this or you are pathologically risk averse, you would be ill advised to bet Pitt -7.5 just to hedge.

[/ QUOTE ]
He is not "getting 7.36 to 1 on a 70% shot." As I explained, he is risking 7 to win 11.4 or "getting" about 1.63 to 1. The EV cost associated with hedging is equal to the vig of getting only +222 on Pit -7.5 instead of the assumed fair odds of +232.

ImBen · #10 09-18-2006, 03:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 7.36 to 1 on a 70% shot. A half Kelly bet on this would be almost 1/3 of your bankroll. Unless your bet was greater than this or you are pathologically risk averse, you would be ill advised to bet Pitt -7.5 just to hedge.

[/ QUOTE ]
He is not "getting 7.36 to 1 on a 70% shot." As I explained, he is risking 7 to win 11.4 or "getting" about 1.63 to 1. The EV cost associated with hedging is equal to the vig of getting only +222 on Pit -7.5 instead of the assumed fair odds of +232.

[/ QUOTE ]

The implied "fair" line "is" +227.85, "not" +232.

So "he" is making a "bet" of 7 "units" at +183 on an "event" with 70% "likelihood". If "those" 7 units combined comprise "less" than ~1/4 "of" his bankroll, it is "stupid" to hedge.