Poker Stars 100k, What would you do here??

[stevematador]

I'm about 140th in chips, 1300 players left from over 18,218. There is an antee of 300 so preflop there is about 7200 in the pot and my M is just below 10. I have no read on UTG, only been at this table 3 hands. Keep in mind this tourney is 10 minute blinds as well.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t32856)
Hero (t70880)
CO (t24395)
Button (t51308)
SB (t21051)
BB (t21315)
UTG (t84553)
UTG+1 (t17408)
MP1 (t107011)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t15000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero??

[alewis21]

I put all the rest in and here's why.

Your M is already below 10, and in a few minutes it will be lower, so you indeed have to do something here.

A cold call will take you down to 55,000. If you fold to a scary flop, you will be taken down to the red zone once the blinds go up again. A cold call also encourages others to enter the pot with you with more overcards to drown your 10's.

The range of hands he has is pretty narrow. AA-JJ, AK, AQ. There are 9 ways to make the higher pocket pairs you fear, and 24 ways to make the unpaired high cards. You are a 4 to 1 dog to the high pairs and a 11 to 10 favorite against the two unpaired high card hands.

You're most likely to get a call here. He's not folding the high pairs or AK, but he MIGHT fold AQ. There's very little chance he was on a bluff steal from UTG, so he won't be throwing those kinds of hands away because he doesn't hold one of those. His M is only slightly better than yours, but he's in no position to lay back, so he's gonna roll the dice with AK type hands.

Based on hand combos alone, there are 35 hands he's likely to have (9 combos of high pocket pairs + 24 combos of AK, AQ + 2 other hands he may mix into the combo)

He'll call the high pocket pairs and AK (21 hands) 100% of the time.

He'll call AQ (12 hands) 75 % of the time.

He'll fold the inferior random hands (2 hands) 100% of the time.

Of the 35 hands this is how it breaks down:
1. 9 of those (26%) are high pocket pairs
2. 21 of those (60%) are calling high cards
3. 3 of those (9%) are folding AQ hands.
4. 2 of those (5%) are folding random hands

After you push, the pot is 92,000, it costs him 55,000 more to call.

1. He calls. You will lose 70,000 80% of time (-56,000), and win 147,000 20% of the time (29,4000) = -26600
@26% = -6650

2. He calls. You lose 70,000 46% of the time (-32200), and win 147,000 54% of the time (79,380) = 47180
@60% = 28308

3 and 4 . He folds. You win 92,000 100 % of the time
@14% = 12,880

You EV for this play is about 35,000, so do it.


Even if you cold call and go heads up to a flop that has all undercards, you will have to call in all in when he does it with overpairs. Your 10's are destined to his overpairs any way you look at it. The real value comes when you get his money in before the flop when you are a favorite that he would otherwise fold to a flop that doesn't improve his hand.

Check the math.

[mutigers5591]

well i dont claim to play good but for soem reason i always fold here but thats mostly cuz im not comfortable playing postflop with that hand

[Pokerfarian]

Math is wrong -- you can include the chips your putting in each time and get x% of 0, y% of 147K, z% of 92K etc and add it up and see if it's more than 70K, or you can can say x% of -70K, y% of +87K, z% of +22K, and see if it comes out positive, but you can't mix the two up as you have done.

Going by your assumptions, +22K 14% of the time (not called), (38% {equity versus entire calling range} x 147K - 70K) = -14K 86% of the time. Thus if his UTG raising range is AQ+,JJ+ it's an easy fold. If it widens to 99+,AJs+ then you can shove

[Tim H]

it would be interesting to see OPR what stakes he usually plays. Whenever I see this 5x raise it is more than likely 22-JJ or non-paired paints, but I play the $3/$6 45 mans [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Pokerfarian]

[ QUOTE ]
well i dont claim to play good but for soem reason i always fold here but thats mostly cuz im not comfortable playing postflop with that hand

[/ QUOTE ]
He's raised more than 20% of our stack -- it's push/fold, there shouldn't ever be any post flop play.

[ QUOTE ]
it would be interesting to see OPR what stakes he usually plays. Whenever I see this 5x raise it is more than likely 22-JJ or non-paired paints, but I play the $3/$6 45 mans [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup, I think his range is weak enough here for this to be a shove

[alewis21]

[ QUOTE ]
(38% {equity versus entire calling range} x 147K - 70K) = -14K 86% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm following you, but where do you get 38% equity versus entire calling range? Remember, he will have AK, AQ (the hands you are favored in) more times than JJ+ based on the sheer number of hand combonations.

Going back to my previous numbers. 9 ways to make pocket pair, 21 ways to make calling AK, AQ hands. 30 calling hands out of 35 total (3 folding AQ, 2 folding random)

9/35 = 26% you'll win 20% of the time.
21/35 = 60% you'll win 54% of the time.

=38% equity - I stand corrected. Good job.

[xxGreat1xx]

UTG opening for this amount looks strong, but also maybe scared. He could have a hand like AJ and not want any callers. or a hand like 77-JJ. I don't think you would open for 5x bb at this stage of the tournament with AA or KK unless that's your standard raise. I would push this and put him to the test. If he calls you with AQ then I think you still made the right play. He would probably call you down with 77-99. Looks like a shove to me

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm about 140th in chips, 1300 players left from over 18,218. There is an antee of 300 so preflop there is about 7200 in the pot and my M is just below 10. I have no read on UTG, only been at this table 3 hands. Keep in mind this tourney is 10 minute blinds as well.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t32856)
Hero (t70880)
CO (t24395)
Button (t51308)
SB (t21051)
BB (t21315)
UTG (t84553)
UTG+1 (t17408)
MP1 (t107011)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t15000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero??

[/ QUOTE ]

The 5xBB raise usually suggests a hand that doesn't want a call IMO the only hand in this specific range that u are a huge dog against is JJ...it's mostly AK/Aq and smaller PP's...i don't think u can discount big PP's here altogether tho, b/c some players will raise big to "protect" their big hands. u have 44% equity against a tight UTG range (AK;AQ; 99-AA) and u are ahead if we add PP's down to 66. With 23 BB's and short rounds this is an easy shove b/c your hand can't take and more callers behind.

[usha]

Like said above, i really think his range is much wider than JJ+,AQ+ esp with that weird raise size. Thats a def push here, expect to see calls here from lower pairs and AQ (which will never fold here IMO).