Beginners Pot Odds Example/Question

[top-spin]

I'm trying to figure out pot odds in Texas Hold 'Em but I'm having a little trouble.

For example, if there's a $100 pot, and I flopped the nut flush draw, of course I would call at $5 bet. But I wouldn't call a $200 bet. I guess it depends on the players. Some would even raise in that spot.

Forgetting those kinds of plays, I'm happy to get a free card to get to my flush. But if I can't, then I should be aware of the difference between a call because I'm getting the right odds and incorrectly calling. That price is kind of eluding me, but I think I'm on the right track.

Using the nut flush as an example and assuming I'll win if I get the flush (the board doesn't pair and no one makes a straight flush).

I've got 9 outs to hit my flush, that's about %36 to win by the river. (9 outs * 2 Cards to come * 2%)

(100-36/100)=67
64/36 ~ 1.8 or almost 2:1

That means for every $1 I call/bet, there should be $2 in the pot. This also assumes there will be no more betting.

Assume $100 in the pot and I'm last to act heads up. If my opponent goes all in for $100, I'm getting 2:1 pot odds which is my drawing odds, so I should call.

Now assume there will be more betting, it isn't all in. I need to cut my odds in half because I'm drawing to the turn card to make my flush. My odds are now about 4:1.

Assume I'm last to act and there is $100 in the pot. Player one bets $50, player 2 folds. Now the pot is laying me only 3:1 but I need 4:1 to make that call. I should fold. If the player in the middle called, then I should call.

Taking a step further, lets say everyone called in that last hand. Now there is $400 in the pot. My odds are still about 4:1 to make my hand. If everyone checks and I'm last to act, I could bet out $100 instead of giving a free card, because the pot is laying me 4:1 with that $100 bet. In fact I want them to call because after their calls, the pot will be laying BETTER odds than I'm drawing to in order to make my hand. I will have bet $100 into a resulting $600 pot, 6:1. But this also gives me the possibility of having one or both players drop out.

So basically I'm willing to pay up to 2:1 on the flop in an all in situation, or I'm willing to pay 4:1 on the flop and turn trying to catch my flush.

Am I on the right track? There's a lot of psychology involved which is a big factor, but I want to be sure I'm grounded in the math and let it be one of my deciding factors. A loose player probably deserves to be called down or raised even if I'm not getting the right odds. Perhaps my Ace high is good against a loose-aggressive player. But let's keep the comments purely mathematical.

[Harv72b]

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(100-36/100)=67
64/36 ~ 1.8 or almost 2:1

[/ QUOTE ]

That's your problem. The odds are actually more like 3:1 against for your 9-outer to come in by the river; you need to base your ratio off of the 100% probability that you will either make a flush or not make one. So you should be looking for 3:1 pot odds in order to call all in on the flop. 4:1 is good if you anticipate another large bet on the turn (your odds of making the flush on the next card only).

Of course it's not quite that simple--you may have other outs to a winner, such as an overcard to your opponent's pair, a gutshot, or even runner runner outs, which also affect your drawing odds. A large raise may cause your opponent to fold his hand immediately. You may get a free card on the turn if he opts not to bet again there (or you may get one by putting in that flop raise). And of course when neither of you is all in, you have to consider your implied odds (bets you'll win after your draw comes in).

Generally speaking you can make the flop call at 3:1 or better regardless of all in status, and assuming a cash game (vs. tournament) can often make it at a bit less than that when your opponent has shoved on the flop. If you're holding two big overcards to the board as well as the flush draw (say AKs on a T-high flop), you can often make the call getting as little as 1:1, because against a single pair hand that doesn't have you dominated you're actually slightly ahead.

[top-spin]

Thanks for the reply and you a lot of good information. I agree with putting in a raise there might get you a free card on the turn, well, not exactly free because it cost you the raise. But the raise does several things, like you said it could cause your opponent to fold but more importantly, you take the lead in the hand. If you had just called the turn's bet (which might be about the same as your raise) you've invested about the same money in both cases, but mentally the action has shifted. Of course assuming your opponent checks the turn to you. A raise there might get your opponent to pay you off on the river if you make your flush on the turn. He may interpret your raise as protecting your already made hand. Should you make your flush on the turn, of course you'll check it as a scare card. He might pay a modest bet on the river rather than folding to a modest bet on the turn when the flush is obvious.

I'm still really confused on my calculations. I've looked up charts on the web and found this for a 9 outer:

Shows odds against making your hand with both 2 cards to come as well as 1 card.

Outs: 9
1 Card: 4.1:1
2 Cards: 1.9:1


That means i should only pay if im getting 4:1 on either the flop bet or the turn bet to draw. I know the situation is WAY more fluid then just 2:1 or 4:1. How are you calculating the 3:1 ?

"Pot odds decisions are one of poker's most elementary, yet it is one of the most common mistakes made by amateur players at all levels."

I still feel like i don't have a good handle on calculating the odds.

I have a 4 flush on the flop. The odds of making it on the turn is calculated (**roughly**) as follows?:

9 outs X 2% = 18% say 20%
(100-20)=80
80/20 = 4

(forget my bizarre calculation on my first post. They were typos)

I'm getting approx 4:1 on either the turn OR the river? Now these are approximates. I'd like to keep the odds and % to fairly whole numbers. If I should call up to say $22.75 based on odds, I'll certainly call an even $25.

Where am I going wrong on the calculations?

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
That means i should only pay if im getting 4:1 on either the flop bet or the turn bet to draw. I know the situation is WAY more fluid then just 2:1 or 4:1. How are you calculating the 3:1 ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because drugs are bad. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

A 9-outer will come in by the river about 36% of the time, as you said, which also means 1 in 3 times. So yes, you should be looking for 2:1 pot odds when calling an all in, not 3:1 as I said above. Or to break it down further, say there's $200 in the pot and you must call a $100 all in. Over a 100 hand sample, you would expect to win $200 36 times for $7200, and lose $100 64 times for a loss of $6400; an $800 profit. At exactly 33% you would break even long-term by making that call. So basically I wasn't thinking straight on that one; my apologies. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[PantsOnFire]

You are fine with your math so far. However, you might want to keep in mind some other outs such as your ace pairing which might be good if you are against something like KK. As well, if you have a pair and a nut flush draw, you are usually better than 2:1 to win.

Now that you have the basic math down, you do need to start the other important aspect of playing the players. It's all fine and dandy to call with a flush draw with the correct odds, but if there is a raise behind you, you now may have made a mistake. Also, betting small into the pot and expecting calls to give you odds may not work out either. The texture of the board, your position, and the number and types of players in the pot are all important. And then there's implied odds in NL that is another separate subject which affects your immediate calling odds.

This is why position is so important. When you call with position, you know you are ending the action. However, there is a consideration called "relative position" where the aggressor in a hand can take away your button. But I digress.

Sorry about straying from the math like you requested but the math is the starting point. There is so much after that that needs to be considered. So if the math says continuing is horrible, you can fold without further thought. If the math is in the ballpark, you need to add that psychological layer to determine how to continue.