$114 - AQ from BB hits AAx flop

[Klinzmann]

First hand of the sng. Villain is a decent player. Any thoughts on this hand is welcome.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)
Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
Hero (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t20, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t20, CO calls t20, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, Hero checks

Flop: (t90) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets t60</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Hero calls t60

Turn: (t210) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets t220</font>, Hero calls t220

River: (t650) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets t1200 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">Hero ???</font>

[darinvg]

Call.
I'd be making a bet/raise on the turn or river though.

[greggg230]

Well, I imagine he's not playing 34 from UTG+1. He's not playing A5 or 55 that aggressively on the flop. Betting with 2 more to act with 22 there would be pretty silly. The only hand he might have that has you beat is 66, right? Which is a bit of a long shot. Looks like a pretty easy call.

[Fat Afghan]

Call.

If he has you beat start up another table.

[Mez]

if you're going to check this three times, you have to call the river

[pokerman777]

you must bet preflop , because if you don't bet preflop you will get small pocket be ev+ .
i think he has 77-1010 call river.

[normalcy]

I think his line is reasonable with a holding of AK. However it also reasonable with AQ and possibly even AJs.

The only other guess would be that he was betting mid pocket pair like TT or 99. However, this is unlikely because he prolly would not fire both a turn bet AND a river bet when called on the flop.

So, being that he is a solid player, as you state, I put the probability as follows:

AK: 60%
AQ: 10%
AJ: 20%
Other: 10%

You certainly do not HAVE TO call on the river. 1200 is plenty of chips to work with at level 1. But the above posts are correct, in that, you should have c/r either the flop or the turn. But now that you didn't, you can still decide to fold.

Analysis:

.6(0) + .1(1520) + .2(3040) + .1(3040) = 0 + 152 + 608 +304

so, if my guesses as to his hand are correct, your equity if calling is = 1064

so, folding is the better option, as your equity if folding (1200) is greater than if calling.

of course, these numbers and the end result can swing dramatically if you assign different ranges and percentages to your villian.

i would opt for folding if you are a better player than most at the table or calling if you are weaker.

[kurti]

If "decent player" means "2+2" and he recognizes you as decent as well then you will be rarely ahead here.
I probably still call though, and curse my bad luck after being eliminated.

[Jago]

55/66 is certainly part of his range too. Tough hand, but as played I don't think you can fold. But I don't think folding is a big mistake either, since if he does hold 55/66 and thinks you have an A you're calling 90% of the time.

[RRizGod]

call of course. You cant fold that.