LC -- Pot Odds: Worst fold ever?

zipppy · #1 11-26-2006, 04:31 PM

Satellite to Sunday Mil ($530).

53 left, 47 win ticket (48th is $270)


PokerStars Game #7185382381: Tournament #36180921, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (6000/12000) - 2006/11/26 - 15:20:06 (ET)
Table '36180921 38' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Lem Motlow (28120 in chips)
Seat 2: Cobra99111 (33249 in chips)
Seat 3: alminfd (18360 in chips)
Seat 5: OzymandiasI (20766 in chips)
Seat 6: Relapsing (12745 in chips)
Seat 7: Nikko75 (36898 in chips)
Seat 8: trollguttn (18540 in chips)
Seat 9: linf3 (78302 in chips)
Lem Motlow: posts the ante 600
Cobra99111: posts the ante 600
alminfd: posts the ante 600
OzymandiasI: posts the ante 600
Relapsing: posts the ante 600 
Nikko75: posts the ante 600
trollguttn: posts the ante 600
linf3: posts the ante 600
OzymandiasI: posts small blind 6000
Relapsing: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Nikko75: folds
trollguttn: raises 5940 to 17940 and is all-in
linf3: folds
Lem Motlow: folds
Cobra99111: folds
alminfd: folds
OzymandiasI: folds
Relapsing has timed out
Relapsing: folds 
Relapsing is sitting out
trollguttn collected 34800 from pot
Relapsing has returned
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 34800 | Rake 0
Seat 1: Lem Motlow folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Cobra99111 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: alminfd (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: OzymandiasI (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Relapsing (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Nikko75 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: trollguttn collected (34800)
Seat 9: linf3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


He wasn't just afk since he sat right back in after the hand. After the BB & Ante, he had 145 chips left for the next hand.

adanthar · #2 11-26-2006, 04:49 PM

if he had bottom 5% and there are a bunch of shortstacks at the other tables, that fold is good

zipppy · #3 11-26-2006, 05:52 PM

by folding, he's guaranteed to be allin the next 2-3 hands, and if he loses any he won't win a seat (since he'll be shorter than anyone else).

Why did you throw out bottom 5%? His call was 145 into a pot of more than 30000 chips. What is an example of a borderline hand for you if you were in the big blinds' shoes?

I'm not folding anything in that spot, ever. 5 of the 53 players left won't get anything, and if i'm folding there i'm realistically committing myself to being one of those 5. If i call here i'm up against only 1 opponent and I have at worst like a 20% chance at a pot of 30,000 for the price of 145.

adanthar · #4 11-26-2006, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
by folding, he's guaranteed to be allin the next 2-3 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

no, actually, just one

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Why did you throw out bottom 5%? His call was 145 into a pot of more than 30000 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

who cares

zipppy · #5 11-26-2006, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
by folding, he's guaranteed to be allin the next 2-3 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

no, actually, just one

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, if he won the next hand, he'd have 1160 in chips. He could fold his button hand, but if he does the ante will force him allin the hand after. So while he may not be allin for the next 2-3 hands, he will be allin 2 of the 3 next hands. I think this should influence his decision to play this hand...5 other people are not busting in the next 2-3 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Why did you throw out bottom 5%? His call was 145 into a pot of more than 30000 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

who cares

[/ QUOTE ]

I do? Seriously, if this is a good fold sometimes, then I'm not looking at this situation correctly. Can you give examples of borderline hands if you were in the bb's position? Try to avoid condescending responses, too, if possible.

zip

adanthar · #6 11-26-2006, 06:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
5 other people are not busting in the next 2-3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

that depends on the # of shortstacks, doesn't it

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Why did you throw out bottom 5%? His call was 145 into a pot of more than 30000 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

who cares

[/ QUOTE ]

I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

tip: you don't need to be the fastest man to outrun the bear

zipppy · #7 11-26-2006, 06:30 PM

Post deleted by zipppy

Blain · #8 11-26-2006, 06:32 PM

I dont think that was a good fold even for 2,7 offsuit. You're chances of winning that hand with ANY 2 cards is better than surviving the next couple of hands...if you even see more than 1.

zipppy · #9 11-26-2006, 06:36 PM

and my internet officially sucks today. anyway....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
5 other people are not busting in the next 2-3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

that depends on the # of shortstacks, doesn't it

[/ QUOTE ]

true. From what I remember, there were ~10 people with stacks less than a big blind. There were still 6 tables, so a little less than 2 on average were being threatened each hand. Play was conservative, and people were not taking themselves out with bad decisions.

I understand that you just need to outlast your opponents, but I can't imagine the odds of winning 2 out of the next 3 are better than winning this one pot against 1 opponent.

That combined with the facts that
1) folding leaves you as a short stack the rest of the tourney (even if you win the allins), and
2) calling+winning gives you an easy win
reinforces this being a call for me.

zip

TwistedEcho · #10 11-26-2006, 06:41 PM

Zippy,

When i realise that i will be in this spot, i would have opened up the other tables and worked out where the other shortstacks will be. Without factoring in the fact people are so bad at sats and someone will bust without needing to, if it doesn't look like people will be forced allin in the next few hands, then i call. If there is going to be shortstacks allin on everytime etc for this hand and the next, then i fold.

Im pretty sure adanthar doesn't just hit fold and hope to survive, he checks out where the shortstacks are, and evaluates his position - once you have decided to fold in you know this spot is possibly coming, so its not like it suddenly happened.