#1
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600NL: To fire a 3rd?
Never played with the villain, but his mined stats look very loose passive. I just sat.
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $3/$6 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $234 UTG+1: $441 Hero: $615 Button: $710.85 SB: $682.55 BB: $549 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $21</font>, Button calls, 2 folds. Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $42</font>, Button calls. Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($135, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $120</font>, Button calls. River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($375, 2 players) I am thinking the turn bet is kinda bad, but do you fire this river here? |
#2
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
Well, if you have mined stats on him, you might as well post those, they can help...
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#3
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
We know these guys probably aren't going to be folding a K or A right? So that's a strike against river betting but that turn bet is probably no good against this guy, i like check-fold
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#4
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
If he had an A high flushdraw, he just made toppair. That's a reason not to bet. JT also made a straight. Would he have raised Kx by now? If not, the river is an easy check since he could have some Kx hand and is too afraid/passive to bet it. In that case he would call with any K, JT and maybe 50% of his Ax hands.
If you could exclude a K from his range it becomes a little bit tougher, I still wouldn't bluff this probably. The best line is to check turn imo, he is passive so he will check any draw, any Q or whatever and give yourself a shot a t a free showdown. |
#5
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
I would never fire a river here!
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#6
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
meh, you could get him off a Q if you fire again but im not sure how often he has that. Fire occasionally but check behind should be standard, especially since it wasnt something like a J or a T that fell, or a diamond.
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#7
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
on a board this heavy, most LAPs manage to minraise the turn or something if they have Kx which is not full - so i tend to discount that part of his range somewhat if not fairly heavily. i do not believe he folds FDs and other decent 15%+ draws (oesds) on the turn because he is LAP. i also think that some of the time you definitely have to expect a call from Qx even on the river from a guy like this.
ok so, hands that will certainly call a river shove (inc. combinations): AQs - 2 AJd-A2d - 10 KQs/KQo - 16 JTs/JTo - 16 88 - 3 (50 total combos) hands that will usually fold to a shove (note that he could have additional weaker hands depending how loose he is preflop): T9d - 1 QJs-Q8s - 16 QJo-Q9o - 36 JJ-99 - 18 (71 total combos) you have about $440 left in a $380 pot so your only move is to shove, but given it is CO vs BTN and that these guys are showdown monkeys usually, i think you should fold. getting him off Qx is certainly going to be difficult, and you never fold Ax+. if there were slightly more combos of Qx- i would probably shove pretty quickly vs everybody. |
#8
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
and the turn bet is very bad.
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#9
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
jfish, totally disagree, hes gonna have alot more missed diamonds than just T9d and for that (the fact that we actually have sd value) makes me want to check here as a default.
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#10
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Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
hmm, maybe im wrong given we bet pot on the turn and other than T9s, J9d the other diamond draws are all to lower flushes (except A hi but they aint folding now) that he would fold more often on the turn
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