50NL - QQ facing ck/r from solid player

[gh171104]

Villian is 16/6.8/1.03 over 600 hands and is multi-tabling on a lot of my tables. My note on him says that he previously called a 4x early pos. raise w/ TT oop from the SB and check called a 92477 board on the flop and turn, the river went check-check.


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $50.40
BB: $50.00
UTG: $6.00
UTG+1: $50.00
MP1: $53.55
MP2: $47.40
MP3: $51.25
Hero (CO): $49.55
BTN: $49.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 checks, MP3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $3.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $15.00</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $29.25

[dividius]

His stats kinda send mixed messages about this hand. That's a pretty low AF to be c/raising this board. JJ is the only hand you can really beat here. Then again, JJ looks like the most likely hand.

His pre-flop stats make a 9 or 10 very unlikely, unless he has 99 or 1010. Would he limp/call a 5x raise OOP with A10 or A9? Would he do that with AA or KK? I can't see him playing AA or KK like this; A10 is borderline if he's suited.

I know his aggro is low, but what's your image like? Could he think you're just c-betting light and his PP is good? Would he make this type of play with JJ, 88, or 77? This just looks fishy to me. I honestly don't know what I would do, table feel is big here. I might push, I might fold. His post-flop stats make you think he's got it, but his pre-flop stats make it look more like a PP.

This is one of those "way ahead or way behind" spots that are tricky as hell to play. Proceed with caution. I can't knock folding here. There's probably better spots to make money.

edit: routine cleanup

[gh171104]

the thing that made me discard JJ was the way he passively played TT previously on the 9 high board check/calling the flop and turn

[RyanCMU]

He raises 99, TT, JJ preflop, I think we can discount them from his range at least slightly...

He likely is a much worse player then you think, and his range here is someting like AA/KK (getting tricky), JTs-ATs. We are praying he has a hand like 77 or 88 and is making a stand, however, I just don't think that is the possible. ALso, I think we can rule out a hand like QJ since he seems passive by your stats and example (read) so I think he would take a more passive line w/ a hand like QJ, even QsJs.

I think this is kind of close, just because he likely is bad, and bad players do goofy [censored] sometimes. Yet, Im thinking fold.

If we disregard him as being passive, This is a shove, because he could be playing many draws this way.. Also if we can put 66-88 and then say he would play strong FD's and QJ this way sometimes, this becomes a shove.

However, as I said earlier, w/ the passive read we have to let this go here.

[dividius]

[ QUOTE ]
He likely is a much worse player then you think

[/ QUOTE ]
I have a habit of making that mistake.

[bkar824]

Yeah, I'm gonig to tell you to fold, but honestly if I were playing this I'd probably freak out and push this guy all in. It's a pretty good idea to fold here against someone that passive, but a 16/8 can definitely limp/call PF with 99 or JJ. If he's got those stats, from that early position he's limp calling with any pp. YOu're up against a pair here, and judging by his passivity before, you're up against one that hit this flop.