NL50: Two river decisions

[Baintz]

I recently had a horrid downswing, so took a week off from poker. Came back a few days ago and have been getting rivered a lot. I try not to be results oriented but it's definitely affecting my decisions and I'm playing sub-par, so I have a couple of hands I'd like a check up on.

Hand 1 - Villain is complete unknown, I'm new to table

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $69.07
SB: $50.65
BB: $45.01
UTG: $110.27
MP: $90.02
Hero (CO): $49.10

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, BTN calls $2, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, BTN folds, BB calls $5

Turn: ($16.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.50</font>, BB calls $12.50

River: ($41.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero???

I was thinking 'I bet he has 5hXh' but again that's results oriented, so should I be shoving here to get value from a Q? Villain has about $25 left.


Hand 2 - Again no reads

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $47.75
BTN: $99.30
SB: $53.75
BB: $55.60
UTG: $50.58

Pre-Flop: X X dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.20</font>, UTG calls $4.20

Turn: ($14.15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11</font>, UTG calls $11

River: ($36.15) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $32.88 and is All-In</font>, Hero ???


Certainly looks like a flush, but could also be KQ or JT which was double-gutted on flop (and they always have JT [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

Do you call here with
- a set?
- 86dd?
- JTdd?


Thanks

[Profish2285]

Hand 1: I am not sure if I like a river shove unless youre confident will pay off with a Q here everytime. If villain wont, then the times that he actually ran a stupid two pair or straight will negate the times he pays you off with a Q. Against an unknown I probably check river. I am not checking because I think I am behind, I am checking because my hand has alot of showdown value and I am not 100% I get paid off by worse often.

Hand 2: Against a complete unknown I fold here with everything you mentioned. I see villains taking this line so often with hands that they want to get value from but are afraid you wont bet for them. In this situation, this would be a flush quite often I think. Youre getting 2:1 but I honestly think villain has a flush here more than 66% of the time. Of course all of this changes when you have a read, because I have also seen a few villains take this line with very marginal holdings.

[Tanky]

Hand 1 put him in for value from AQ KQ.

Hand 2, 86 and a set have the same value, JT is a bit tighter cos there is a chop there, I would fold all.

[Profish2285]

Hand 1: I guess to go further why I like a check lets think about reasonable hands he could have that beat you. A5hh, 56hh, badly played sets (which is definitely possible b/c ppl love to slow play), 67, 85hh, 45. I am sure there are a few more, but Im missing them. Lets not forget that this is the BB so his range doesnt have to be very tight as most players dont have very tight ranges from the blinds.

Now lets think about hands that we are ahead of. A missed flush draw, weaker Queens, 89. If you want to assume villain is reallllly loose, even throw in a mid pocket pair. I think we can safely assume the missed flush draw and missed straight draw are not paying you off. So at best case scenario we are assuming the weaker Queen pays you off and the mid pocket pair pays you off. However, many villains will be scared off from the straight and will not call a shove here. I would be surprised if an unknown calls you half the time with the Queen here if you shove. He might call if you make some small bet like 12, but not a shove.

As you can see, the number of hands beating us by this point obviously outweighs the number of hands we beat. More important than that tho is that the number of hands we beat will not necessarily pay us off, but every hand we lose to will call this bet. This is why I like a check. I guess if someone thinks I am wrong here they could explain why.

[Baintz]

I like your thinking here, and it was pretty much my thinking too. Not sure about the $12 bet though. The pot is $40ish and he has $25 left. If I'm betting, I'm putting him in.

However, you say that donks love to slowplay and he could well have a set in hand 1. But then in hand 2, you say you would fold all hands as he most likely has a flush. Could he not also have a set that is now worried I won't bet my AA/AK/KQ given the flush card hitting?

[rakes.a.beach]

I shove hand 1.

Hand 2 is a tough laydown cuz you have a big hand. I think folding is prob +EV in that spot though as everything got there except a couple striahgts.

[Tanky]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: I guess to go further why I like a check lets think about reasonable hands he could have that beat you. A5hh, 56hh, badly played sets (which is definitely possible b/c ppl love to slow play), 67, 85hh, 45. I am sure there are a few more, but Im missing them. Lets not forget that this is the BB so his range doesnt have to be very tight as most players dont have very tight ranges from the blinds.

Now lets think about hands that we are ahead of. A missed flush draw, weaker Queens, 89. If you want to assume villain is reallllly loose, even throw in a mid pocket pair. I think we can safely assume the missed flush draw and missed straight draw are not paying you off. So at best case scenario we are assuming the weaker Queen pays you off and the mid pocket pair pays you off. However, many villains will be scared off from the straight and will not call a shove here. I would be surprised if an unknown calls you half the time with the Queen here if you shove. He might call if you make some small bet like 12, but not a shove.

As you can see, the number of hands beating us by this point obviously outweighs the number of hands we beat. More important than that tho is that the number of hands we beat will not necessarily pay us off, but every hand we lose to will call this bet. This is why I like a check. I guess if someone thinks I am wrong here they could explain why.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do see your point, i suppose any read on how villain plays here would help a lot, such as how does he play TPGK from OOP, does he play 2 pairs passively etc - i just think we never see a set here as he surely doesnt check call both flop and turn with this. 85 Preflop is remote, I suppose 76 is the big worry, but assuming villain doesnt play 76o preflop theres only 2 combos of 76s. I think villain is drawing to a flush 70% of the time here but i think his line is representative of AQ KQ a lot.

[Profish2285]

In hand 1, betting 12 has the psychological benefit. I think many times people are more afraid of the shove then the weak looking value bet. But in general, I really just check behind until I get a better grasp on villain.

In hand 2, it is true that he could have a set because people love to slow play, but people also usually get scared of flushes. I just dont see many unknowns shoving with anything less than flushes when they take this line. I think once in a while you will see a set, but I dont think it will be anywhere close to often enough to make this call profitable.

[Profish2285]

Tanky, villains here are very capable of having sets. Just because its a horrific way to play it does not mean he wont have it. Most donks slow play because theyre afraid to lose their customers, not taking into account things like board texture or ranges. If the 85 is suited btw, I dont think its as remote as people may think. Also, if you think villain is drawing to the flush 70% of the time then there REALLY is no value in betting here. Just to reiterate this idea, he is obviously not calling your bet with a missed draw. So Tanky, taking your line of thought, 70% of the time its a given he will not call. Assume he has a missed straight draw even 5% of the time. So 25% of the time we are looking at a made hand, whatever that made hand will be. Of that 25%, what is a fair number of times we lose to a badly played two pair, set, or straight? Lets assume even 10%. So now we are looking at 15% of the time he has a Queen or whatever else. Like I originally said, I only think he is paying us off half the time here with one pair hands, as villains will be scared of the 4 card straight. So 7.5% of the time he will be calling our bet. So to summarize, 7.5% of the time we get paid off, 75% of the time he just folds, and 17.5% of the time he calls and we lose. This is just what I think, and again I am more than happy for someone to show me if I am wrong here.

[Tanky]

[ QUOTE ]
Tanky, villains here are very capable of having sets. Just because its a horrific way to play it does not mean he wont have it. Most donks slow play because theyre afraid to lose their customers, not taking into account things like board texture or ranges. If the 85 is suited btw, I dont think its as remote as people may think. Also, if you think villain is drawing to the flush 70% of the time then there REALLY is no value in betting here. Just to reiterate this idea, he is obviously not calling your bet with a missed draw. So Tanky, taking your line of thought, 70% of the time its a given he will not call. Assume he has a missed straight draw even 5% of the time. So 25% of the time we are looking at a made hand, whatever that made hand will be. Of that 25%, what is a fair number of times we lose to a badly played two pair, set, or straight? Lets assume even 10%. So now we are looking at 15% of the time he has a Queen or whatever else. Like I originally said, I only think he is paying us off half the time here with one pair hands, as villains will be scared of the 4 card straight. So 7.5% of the time he will be calling our bet. So to summarize, 7.5% of the time we get paid off, 75% of the time he just folds, and 17.5% of the time he calls and we lose. This is just what I think, and again I am more than happy for someone to show me if I am wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well made point, i'll explain my thought process and let me know what you think as im here to learn.

Hands he can have..

76s (2 combos) - This is possible, but surely he raises the flop or turn here, but definately possible.

85s (4 combos) - I think % chance he calls preflop must be v low

55 - Definately possible preflop, but i dont see him checking the river with $25 behind and a $40 pot.

66 77 - his line cant be this

QQ or AA - just no

4h3h 6h3h 6h4h - all fold preflop

AQ KQ - most villains call preflop, and his postflop line is very consistent with these 2 hands.

Obviously im basing too much weighting on how "i think" villain will play rather than what is possible. I just dont see the straight checking the river with so little behind, I dont see a set check calling down.

As a result im putting villain on

AhXh - Wont call river bet
76s - Calls and beats us (2 combos)
AQ, KQ - Maybe calls (most villains call AQ) 18 combos

I can also see merit in a smaller bet to temp KQ hands that may fold, but in reality a shove is ~60% pot.