Borat opening line... Get them bets in!!!

[03 Z4]

Pinny O/U line is 12 mil.

Borat is opening on 800 theaters so for it to make 12M, it need to ave $15K / theatres.

Here are opening weekend w/ above or about $15K ave broken down by month.

Jan - SW Ep 4 (Re-release)
Feb - Passion of Christ, Hannibal, Diary of Mad Black Woman
Mar - Ice Age
Apr - None
May- Spidey 1, SW Ep 3, X3, Shrek 2, Matrix 2, SW Ep 2, SW Ep 6, X2, Jurassic 2,, SW Ep 1, Finding Nemo, Da Vinci Code, Day After Tomorrow, Mummy 2, Bruce Almighty, Pearl Harbor, Twister, MI 2, MI, Indy 3, Van Helsing
June - Fah 9/11, HP 3, Jurassic 1, Batman 1/2/3/4, Hulk, Austin Power 1, Lion King, Scooby Doo, Jaws 2, Fast & Furious 1/2, Cars, Mr/Mrs Smith
July - Pirates 2, Blair Witch, Spidey 2, Austin Power 2, Planet of Apes, X1, Indep. Day, MIB, War of Worlds, Bourne 2, Fantastic 4, Forrest Gump, I Robot, Charlie Chocolate, Jurassic 3
Aug - Rush Hour 2, Signs, Ame Pie 2
Sep - None
Oct - None
Nov - Harry 1/2/4, 8 Mile, Monsters, Incredibles, Toy Story 2, Grinch, Aladdin, Rocky 4, Back to Future 2, Waterboy, Ace Ventura
Dec - LOTR 1/2/3, Narnia

Borat does not fit anywhere on that list.

Only 18 movies were outside of summer blockbuster months and those were super-hyped/advertised by studios and well known by public (except 1, more on this later).

From whole list, only 6 are R-rated.

Comparable indy small movies to Borat are Diary, Fah 9/11 and Blair Witch. 9/11 and Blair had obscene word-of-mouth (WOM) via anti-Bush sentiment and Internet buzz (Blair was 1st of its kind). They had smaller releases pre-opening weekend to create WOM.

Diary was a surprise hit (lone exception) but that had a very large African-Ame audience. Ori King of Comedy (13K ave) did similar to Diary w/ same audience.

OK, you say a smaller release might provide higher ave but if recent movies w/ similar theatres ct like Chicago, Crouching Tiger, Evita, Royal Tenabaums, About Schmidt, Hand Rock Cradle, Brokeback Mountain, The Doors, Dead Poet Society, Boyz in Hood, When Harry Met Sally, Ame Beauty couldn't even do 14K, don't see how Borat can do 15K.

Borat will be a hit given the eventual very positive WOM and critics review, but NO WAY will it get to 12 mil this weekend w/ this few theatres.

Don't see how anyone knowing it will open only on 800 theatres can bet over. The huge recent signing by Universal for Sasha's next movie may give sign of big opening but not according to Borat's studio. It said the movie is not tracking well and reason for opening at 800. How often does a studio admit that???

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-borat25oct25,1,725425.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Just how confident I am on this bet, I've put in 23 max bets on it since it opened last nite.

[almostbusto]

i got 1700(4 units) on this too. i was about to let the cat out of the bag myself. but i didn't catch it till later than you. i can only imagine the sick odds you got. my odds averaged about -166 or so

[03 Z4]

Actually, your odds were not that worse than mine, about -150. Longer I wait between bets last nite, line goes down (low as -115) but was worry about someone figuring out about the 800 theatres opening so I kept betting it.

Only way to lose this is if Fox increased theater openings. That would be way too cruel.

[hoyasnaxa]

Reviews for the movie are actually really really really good.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/borat/

Like unbelievably good. The 91% approval rating is from critics, CRITICS. FOX pulled it from theatres mostly in the South and Midwest, from what I have heard, because they found it offensive. These areas probably wouldnt have seen the movie much anyway. Just a warning...

[03 Z4]

In my OP, I did say that Borat is very-well received but just not enough WOM for THIS weekend and backed by studio's tracking.

This movie will be huge next weekend and after but just not this weekend. Studio is slowly rolling out movie to have it make it more total.

[Black Aces 518]

line is down right now completely.

[Alfuh]

damn, line is down at pinny

[DeezNuts]

Line back up at 11m. I saw a screening of this movie and loved it, so I will make a homer play and put a bet on Over 11m(+141).

DN

Go see this movie!

[03 Z4]

Back up now. O/U is 11 mil though.
Too high still, IMO.

Done w/ this line for me.

[03 Z4]

Line is great now for arbing prev. under bets