Calculating EV

[Asheh]

Im pretty new to calculating EV properly, but i was discussing the following hand with a friend and wondered if anyone with a good knowlege could provide some insight..

Rougly you can calculate your a 4/1 on your flush draw, + your 6 overs gives you another 20% equity so its rougly a 50/50 (or 45/55 in this case)

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1476014

I rougly calculated that your expected value here is +~$9.75 because:

(0.45) * -95 + (0.55) +95

That is, 0.45 of the time you lose 95$ and 0.55 of the time you win $95.

So its a positive expectation?

Cheers all
Ash.

[Asheh]

Out of interest, whats the EV of folding?

[mykey1961]

Why are you using $95?

The player with 9d 9s pushed all in for $95, but since the player with Ah Qh only had $62.5 left, the figure you should use is the $62.5.


Pot size after Ah Qh called was $191 ($2 Rake)

Ev = Pot * Equity - Cost

Ev = $191 * 0.55 - $62.5 = $42.55

This assumes Ev of folding to be $0.

[Asheh]

So even with only a %30 equity, this is +EV

[mykey1961]

[ QUOTE ]
So even with only a %30 equity, this is +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Ev = Pot * Equity - Cost

Ev = $191 * 0.30 - $62.5 = -$5.20

No it's not.