Best line on World Series ending in four games exactly?

Performify · #1 10-20-2006, 02:47 PM

So far all i've found is Bodog:

Cards win in 4: +1500
Tigers win in 4: +500

I'm wrapped up 'capping the NFL games for this week, wondered if anyone has seen anything better...

Looking to hedge on Game 5 tickets...

chalk7 · #2 10-20-2006, 03:05 PM

pinny:

cards +2247

tigers +624

chalk7 · #3 10-20-2006, 03:15 PM

actually cards -3.5 wins is +2380. thats the same bet unless i am crazy. what about hitting this and then betting the tigers each game?

Artdogg · #4 10-20-2006, 05:20 PM

if you are going to bet on a tigers sweep isnt it better to bet game 1 then carry it over to game 2 then game 3 etc?

crockpot · #5 10-20-2006, 08:37 PM

among other things:

series sweep (pinny): +566
tigers -3.5 (same as tigers sweep - pinny): +646

chalk7 · #6 10-21-2006, 04:03 AM

cards sweep is up to +2762. can someone help me with if this has +ev to place and then bet on the tigers on each game?

crockpot · #7 10-21-2006, 04:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
cards sweep is up to +2762. can someone help me with if this has +ev to place and then bet on the tigers on each game?

[/ QUOTE ]

right now it looks like a cards sweep is over a 30-1 shot. given you'll be paying juice four times if you bet the tigers each game, i doubt it will show a profit.

MyTurn2Raise · #8 10-21-2006, 04:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
cards sweep is up to +2762. can someone help me with if this has +ev to place and then bet on the tigers on each game?

[/ QUOTE ]

ok...to make the math simple, assume you bet $100 on the Cards to sweep and win $2762

Game 1...bet on Detroit at -182
need to bet at least $182 to recoop the $100 on the Cards if the Tigers win

If the Cards win, it's now $282 invested

Game 2 is Weaver against Kenny Rogers. I expect the line to be -180 or so Again (back of the envelope...this isn't my expertise so my number may be off by a bit). This would force you to bet $452 to recover the $282 if the Tigers win.

NOw, if the Cards win, YOu're upto $734
Game 3 is Carpenter v Robertson in Busch. With the Cards winning the first two game and Carp on the mound at home, the Cards would probably favored here by a bit. I think that the Tigers would be +120 in such a match-up. Have to bet $612 on the Tigers to recoop the $734.

If the Cards win, you're now upto $1,346. Game 4 would be Suppan v Bonderman in Busch. The Cards would be slight favorites if they had won the first 3 with Suppan on the mound at home. Probably +110 on the Tigers. YOu'd still have to bet $1346/1.1 .
Add it all up and you have a small ev edge under my calculations, but this is highly subject to the lines and assumptions.

If you can get a moneyline on all of the projected games assuming the Cards winning each previous game, you could get an answer by following the steps I set up. My guess is there is no edge.

chalk7 · #9 10-21-2006, 04:27 AM

thanks guys.