FTP $24 - calling range with a microstack

[alex-star]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t3970
Button: t7870
SB: t770
Hero: t890

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with XY
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t1400</font>, SB folds

What do guys call with here? Button's range here is ATC. Notice that the SB will be all in the next round of blinds.

[Shillx]

You can estimate your fold EV to be about 13.3% since he will have to go all-in 1st (assuming everyone plays AI HU @ even money). In reality you will have somewhat more then 20% equity if you get ITM so put it somewhere between there and 14.2% (guy goes broke in his BB, big stack wins every hand).

I'm getting 22.8% equity if you win this hand so that puts your equity requirement at 58-62% and that agrees with %'s that we have come up with in the past (call with about the top 20%).

[ger664]

Shillx.
When calculating Heros fold equity based on future events, have you considered that Hero must pay the SB before shortie is put all-in ?

Without taking future EV in to consideration u need 50% equity against Villians range. This is would be top 50% of hands.

[Shillx]

When calculating Heros fold equity based on future events, have you considered that Hero must pay the SB before shortie is put all-in ?

My ICM assumptions

Fold &amp; Get ITM: 21.3%
Call &amp; Win/Short stack doubles: 19.0%
Call &amp; Win/Short stack busts: 26.5%

Yeah I did but what I didn't consider is that we will have to win twice if the other dude doubles up (after making some assumptions obviously). The chance that we don't busto is going to be closer to...

p = (1-e) + e^3(1-e) + e^5(1-e)...
e = Equity of the AI player

If you assume that e = .5 then our chance of getting ITM is about 58%. So we only need about 54% equity to call this shove. One of the things that you have to consider is that the all-in guy will generally have the worst of it or he will have to win against multiple opponents (or against certain players, get walked).

If you set e = .43 then you get an ITM rate of 62.4% and an overall fold equity of about 13.3%. If we call and win we will have about 23.3% equity after the short stacks plays an all-in pot (with 43% equity). So we would need 57% equity to call the push under those conditions.

[ger664]

Thanks for that Shillx.

Difference between Software and By Hand Calcs.

SNGPT spits out the wrong answer and I would presume that SNGWIZ does as well.

[HajiShirazu]

I play these situations terribly all the time and have no idea what to do in this hand either, and usually the software out there isn't much of a help.
57% is the answer? That makes sense I guess.

[alex-star]

so we're talking 99+ AJ+?

[ger664]

Thats too tight.

Given shillx came up with equity figures of between 58%-62%.

58% range would be (Top 20%) 55+,A3s+,K8s+,QTs+,A7o+,KTo+,QJo
62% range would be (Top 10%) 66+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+


Take your pick.