predicting line movement

[n2p]

This is a pretty newb question but I didn't see anything about it in the FAQ. What are some ways to predict whether a line will move during the week and which way.

I am under the impression that if I'm betting with the public, betting early in the week is better and if betting against the public waiting until last minute is best. What other factors should I be keeping in mind when deciding if I should place a bet now or wait until closer to gametime?

[rush66]

Ok, predicting is not my specialty, reading line moves more so, but i'll take a shot here. Id start by picking a game I know the public will be on. A big favorite on a wed, thurs, or fri night game is a good place to start honing your skills. For example, if WVU is playing ECU on a Thursday night you can expect that the public will be all over WVU. From there, start looking at a few things. Here are some examples (stolen from other forum) flat spot in the schedule, lookahead, distractions, excessive adulation, key injuries, extra motivated opponent. Apply these to both sides. An example would be if WVU is playing S. Fla the week after ECU, they will most likely be looking ahead. In this case you can expect the sharps to be all over ECU, this will drive the line from -27 (hypothetical) down to -26 or perhaps 25. Therefore if you like WVU you should wait, if you like ECU then take it early. This requires some significant work as soon as the lines open or a semi successful way of predicting lines. See, the threads each week.

An example from this week. If you like Rutgers Id get it now, b/c I foresee the line dropping to 2 or 1.5. If you like S. fla you can wait it out. This is a few days late, but just attempting to answer your question.

EDIT: This is a very simpleton way of looking and clearly wont work on every game. Im positive there are people out there who can do this well. Hopefully they chime in. Also, to add. Its probably easier to predict games that will have a larger number of wagers. Large conference games, hyped up games, and games on tv. Hope this helps.

[n2p]

good post thanks.