3 barrels with KQ (NL50)

CalledDownLight · #1 09-21-2007, 06:17 PM

This hand is against a 15.4/7.7 over about 250 hands. No notes on him and we haven't really tangled too much at all this session. I fired 2 barrels assuming I could rep anything J10 or better and hoping he'd fold his 9, T, or draw assuming that was his holding. Thoughts on that line of thought please? After he called that it appeared obvious that he didn't believe I had a big hand. Obviously, the A could be both a good or bad card for me. First off all the draws bricked so he'll fold those. Secondly, if he put me on a pair then a lot of times its A9 or A10 and I just hit 2 pair. Other times I 2 barreled some hand like AQ or AK and got there on the river and now decided to get some value from the hand. Obviously the ace gives him 2 pair a decent amount of the time too and he's never folding that so I'll get looked up some.

What do you guys think about the whole hand postflop? I realize some of you won't raise this pre, but lets focus on postflop. He's getting almost 4 to 1, but he can't like a hand like J10 much anymore can he?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($7.50)
UTG+1 ($11.50)
MP1 ($54.85)
MP2 ($30.85)
CO ($50)
Button ($56.60)
Hero ($47.75)
BB ($45.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
4 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.5, BB calls $2, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($7.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $6.5, BB calls $6.50, CO folds.

Turn: ($20.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $10.5, BB calls $10.50.

River: ($41.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $28.25 (All-In)

Mike Kelley · #2 09-21-2007, 06:21 PM

I like a bigger turn bet.

$16-$18

effang · #3 09-21-2007, 06:26 PM

this is ok, because it is going to work a decent amount of time because a player that calls 2 street is likely on a draw. so yeah, shoving river, you might get him to fold some stupid FD like 56hh or A5hh that had you beat.

however, this is a 3 way pot on the flop. that means the flop pot is bigger than you want.

this makes your turn bets either too big to shove river as a threat (no hammer), or too small for FE.

this is all because the flop pot is already too big. as such, like you said, he's getting a great price already.

oh yeah, villain has an even smaller stack, which means that betting bigger on turn definitely means your river shove will be looked up more.

Fiasco · #4 09-21-2007, 06:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this is ok, because it is going to work a decent amount of time because a player that calls 2 street is likely on a draw. so yeah, shoving river, you might get him to fold some stupid FD like 56hh or A5hh that had you beat.

however, this is a 3 way pot on the flop. that means the flop pot is bigger than you want.

this makes your turn bets either too big to shove river as a threat (no hammer), or too small for FE.

this is all because the flop pot is already too big. as such, like you said, he's getting a great price already.

[/ QUOTE ] agreed. I tend to bet a bit less on the flop myself.

I dont mind your line. why havent you listed his AF? I think that thats a crucial stat for deciding here.

Ironic · #5 09-21-2007, 06:30 PM

I'm too chicken to try that kinda stuff. I do bluff sometimes but only against regulars who respect me.

I think if the last card was a heart and not an ace it would succeed against most busted draws.

CalledDownLight · #6 09-21-2007, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm too chicken to try that kinda stuff. I do bluff sometimes but only against regulars who respect me.

I think if the last card was a heart and not an ace it would succeed against most busted draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the last card is a heart then he laughs in my face and calls with a flush a lot of the time. FWIW I was going to shove all jacks and aces, and usually shove, but sometimes c/c on river K and Q.

I don't even remember his AF, but it wasn't extreme either way and I don't have near enough hands on him to know if its accurate.

Chargers In 07 · #7 09-21-2007, 07:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's getting almost 4 to 1,

[/ QUOTE ] He's getting 2.61:1 (sorry, I'm a math nit). Although this hand is less about what he's getting than what you're giving yourself. Your bluff needs to succeed 38.3% of the time for this to work and actually more considering rake. Do you think it will work this often? I think it will unless he has a hand like Ahxh.

coordi · #8 09-21-2007, 07:40 PM

I think his AF is kind of relevant here. There are alot of hands a .5 are playing like this that snap call. 2+ is a little different because he probly raises somewhere in here with a callable hand. This is the kind of move I would make against someone I have a little more relevant history with, but I think it looks ok. I think 5-5.5 flop, 10.5 turn then a shove would look alot better though.