This might just be an elaborate math question....

[drbk2]

Like 4 AM or something $40/$80 game at CAZ. Pretty much the type of game you would expect at that hour, at times pretty crazy at other times pretty normal.

Preflop: Tight guy limps UTG. Laggy guy limps UTG +1. Horrible lady and another laggy guy limp, I limp in cutoff with 7d5d, overaggressive mostly but sometimes strangely passive small blind completes, big blind checks.

Flop: Qs 6d 3d. Big blind leads, Utg calls, utg + 1 calls, folded to me and I call, small blind check raises, big blind calls, utg 3 bets, utg + 1 now caps.

Easy fold or call? I just got back to my hotel room and I'm tired so I'll probably read this later and know the right play, but just curious to see what others think.

[rafiki]

I think without even doing the math for you (which I'll do in a second), you're going to hear a massive "raise the flop" out of almost everyone in here. And by the time you've raised the flop and it's 2 cold back to you, it'll be an easy call.

I'll think about the 3 cold back and work out the numbers now...

[jba]

"Easy fold"

am I on crack?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
"Easy fold"

am I on crack?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't think so.

[rafiki]

ok I got 7 small bets preflop, 12 more small bets in the pot on the flop with the action on you. 19 small bets without the almost guaranteed 5 more coming from sb, bb, utg when the action is back on them.

A conservative 19 to 3 (better then 6 to 1), as big as 24 to 3 (8 to 1).

Really the crux of the hand is deciding if your diamond draw is something you want to hit. Your 3 gutshot outs are clean. And then 1 more straight flush out. With so many villains in there, defining hand ranges is going to be tough. UTG sounds like a KQ, 66, 33, and then possibly the nut diamond draw with something like Axd. If he's not the one with the set, someone else surely has one. And that only nails down 2 villain holdings for us. the other 2 unknowns I just can't define their ranges. It's not that big of an action flop.

So 4 clean outs getting about 8 to 1 (best case). In a black and white world, that's a fold. The second anyone can justify the other diamonds being outs, that's a call (and really I'm not experienced enough to say they are, and maybe nobody is).

but I know that if you'd raised the flop when it was on you, you'd be calling 2 cold back, and that would be an easy call.

[rafiki]

[ QUOTE ]
"Easy fold"

am I on crack?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say it's only an easy fold if someone flashed you 2 diamonds higher then yours. Short of that, I agree we're going to have to see more cards. And as mentioned, there was a way to make this decision easier when the action was on us.

[bugstud]

I don't think I'd ever fold here. Your implied odds when you hit your 4 outer make up for the slightly insufficient current price.

[Howard Beale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Easy fold"

am I on crack?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say it's only an easy fold if someone flashed you 2 diamonds higher then yours. Short of that, I agree we're going to have to see more cards. And as mentioned, there was a way to make this decision easier when the action was on us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone else here *should* have diamonds and, even if they're lower (unlikely), that's 2 fewer outs. Judging by the flop action the pot seems likely to be hotly contested on the turn as well. If he makes his diamonds he may be paying off a bigger flush. If he hits his str8 he's got many players drawing against him. All of this is too uncertain for me. I fold.

[Mike Gallo]

Your implied odds when you hit your 4 outer make up for the slightly insufficient current price.

OP has a flush draw and a gut shot straight draw, along with a gutshot straight flush draw.

[rafiki]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'd ever fold here. Your implied odds when you hit your 4 outer make up for the slightly insufficient current price.

[/ QUOTE ]

But surely you have to consider all the times when you hit your flush, and pay heavily into the turn and river with a loser (so reverse implied). With sets out there and higher flush draws, when we lose, we lose big.