DEEP 10/20 bellagio, turn help

[G_Dollaz]

I just moved to this table less then 2 orbits ago. villian in this hand is very solid, and he views me as very solid. We have never played w/ each other before, but got caught up discussing a hand that happened after I sat down where we both realize the other player is very good... that being said, onto the hand...

9 handed, villian has $11k, I cover.

I open to 80 utg w/ 9cTc, folded to villian in sb who calls.

flop comes Js Td 8d... I bet 160, villian calls.

turn is 7s... I bet 400, villian makes it 1200 (which I'm expecting), here's my thought process....

if I 3 bet here, I'm not getting called by anything that I beat, and there's a very good chance I'm getting my money in where he's already got the straight w/ the flush redraw.

I don't think he defends his sb w/ K9, but I'm pretty sure he's good enough to realize that I'm not opening utg w/ K9. if I only call here, I'm forced to call any river (I think) b/c that way I maximize profit by allowing him to continue bluffing.

help me out in this spot...

[flawless_victory]

whats the question?

[PartyGirlUK]

[ QUOTE ]
whats the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

'What rivers to bluff after calling the turn raise?'?

After giving it much thought I now realize how strong a play a river 'bluff' can be. Of course it isn't even a true bluff because our hand is the 2nd nuts and he's not folding the nuts to us. It is about folding out the same hand (1 card straight) and us picking up a rather large pot uncontested.

Folding a straight on the river for a well-sized overbet shove repping Q9 would be one heck of a play for villian here and if you think he's capable of doing it it's definately worth a shot unless of course he himself has Q9.

Also if a flush hits on the river you may be able to move him off a straight even easier but of course be careful because there will be times were he makes the flush.

As it is I see no other play than to just call turn. On the river we get to make an interesting decision based on the texture of board and any live tells he may give off. The most standard and safe play would be to call a large river bet and fold to huge overbets but if you are able to read opponent for same hand as you it may be interesting to shove rivers that bring flush/pair board because I don't think anybody c/r a set or two pair on this turn.

[G_Dollaz]

my question was 2 parts really

1) does anyone shove the turn to try and fold out a bare 9 and take it down here since my personal read was that he's on the FD (maybe with, but maybe w/out the 9, he may be semi-bluffing) as I think he'd lead a 9 w/out the FD here, and it probably looks to him like I'm planning on bet/folding the turn b/c I doubt he thinks I have the 9 after opening utg

2) If we do just call (like I did) and the spade or diamond hits, who shoves what card, b/c he could be playing spades or diamonds here, and I'm not sure if he can lay down a flush or not.

[PartyGirlUK]

He's not folding a flush. You shove a flush river to get him off the straight.

Also consider shoving cards that pair the board.

[NL Rounder]

I agree that this is an interesting hand and any live tells are very critical here. What follows is my speculation:

I would smooth-call and sweat a spade on the river. I'm putting your very solid opponent on either A9, T9 or 98 of spades, due to his check-raise on the turn. I would have expected more action on the flop if he held diamonds like Ax, J9 or 97. I don't think he's holding Q9.

Your opponent is acting first on the river and I'm hoping to get a reaction as that card hits the felt. If a spade hits, I'm most likely folding to a big bet or paying off a small value bet. "IF" my read is right, a diamond hitting the river has to concern your opponent and I would consider making a large bet or raise based on his reaction and subsequent action.