NL50 - KK - what do I put villain on here?

[yegon]

No history with villain who was playing aggressively at 35/24/3.5 but not bad. I have seen him fold to pfrr several times. He actually made the impression of knowing what he is doing.

I played this hand kind of like without thinking (the "wow, I have KK" way) and when I looked at it later I was not sure what should I consider and think about on every street. I am still not sure what I would put villain on here.

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $84.07
Hero (UTG): $66.06
BTN: $62.53
SB: $57.59

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $12</font>, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($28.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $20</font>, BB calls $20

River: ($68.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $50.07 and is All-In</font>, Hero ???

[UmbertoEco]

Raise the flop sometime?

[GSykes]

A hand that beats you?? Easy fold a hand like 89

[members_only]

The flop c/r followed by turn c/c looks a lot like some kind of pair + draw hand

Although you're getting more than 3-1, I doubt he turns something like Ad7d into a bluff often enough to call the river

I think you played the flop and turn fine

[Logun]

pair + draw looks like
however it's also an awesome card to bluff at

fold

[Chomp]

I play preflop/flop the same. I like flop bet-size.

One problem here is that villain's range seems really wide on the flop. Seems to me all these hands are reasonably in his c/r range:

Board: 6d 7s 8d 2c
Hand 0: 53.824% { KcKs }
Hand 1: 46.176% { 99-55, A9s-A8s, A5s, KdQd, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A9o-A8o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }

(TT/JJ/AKdd repop pre, right? 72o represents a random bluff)

I don't think it gets much better than that really - removing and adding some of this changes equity only marginally.

So I am kinda torn on the turn bet. Value/protection seem important as ever, but by the turn it seems to me that the hand has deviated somewhat from a normal premium "bet-bet-bet" situation.

Villain is going to cr us on turn with each made hand (set, str8) - and sometimes he will do it with draws too. So to a cr we're often drawing dead if we call, (but might feel committed getting almost 3/1) and other times we might decide to fold with the best hand.

Alternatively, if villain does have a draw, he only has ~20% equity now. So we could take our chances and control the pot with our 1p hand.

And if we check turn villain might have a stab at it on the river into a much more sane $28 pot with trash. I suppose that means we are open to being bluff-shoved off it on river sometimes, but meh, if this guy can get the balls to do that ("this guy has AA/KK here, he is a TAG - I can make him fold with a push on a scare card") he'll be moving up next week anyway and will be out of our hair.

I think 55 or 99 is most likely actually, and both just came in on river.

[vixticator]

He's got to be a huge donkey to raise this flop with anything less than pair+sr8draw, big flush draw probably to NFD but maybe KdQd too, but probably does it with an overpair too along with hands you are crushed by. I'd say his overall equity has to be strong on the flop. You do too. Consider pushing here IMO. Call is fine too.

Now a brick on the turn. Easy push if he bets out. And he checks! You should be ahead by a lot now. He should know you have an overpair at this point but probably not as strong as Kings because you didn't 3bet flop. It doesn't seem likely he has a huge hand though because he chose not to raise all-in on the turn.

Since he should have a good idea what you have, calling turn with intent to push any diamond, 5, 4, 9, 10 on river is plausible. I think this push is a bluff more than a standard amount, more in the 20-25%+ range. IMO big flush draws are playing the same by a bunch of players, maybe this one. Overpair at this point is unlikely, I'd scratch that. He's either got air or straight. I think 79+ plays same and that's a ton of hands. And, although I believe a busto flush draw is doing this a lot... I kind of want to have seen him make this play and get called previously.

So, meh. Fold. Make a note. I'd look him up if played with this person regularly. But since you'll probably never or rarely run into them again, if he has nothing then nice move.

The sticky part is it looks like you have TT, JJ type hand and can be pushed off easier. If he thought you had AA/KK I believe this is a bluff less % of the time.