donk or c/r flop ?

[fdwarrior]

Villain is 13/5/0.6/38 over 145 hands


0.25/0.50 Fixed-Limit Hold'em <font color="blue">(9 handed)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="grey">5 folds</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="grey">SB folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="grey">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.00 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="grey">Hero folds</font>.

i dont think he is betting a worse hand on the river so i fold.
what about flop play ?

[KitCloudkicker]

Standard.

[lqd78]

i like it, but i would callriver. in a 25/50 ur ahead often

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
i like it, but i would callriver. in a 25/50 ur ahead often

[/ QUOTE ]

i doubt it.

13/5/0.6/38

[OziBattler]

given his stats and the action, when this guy 3 bets the flop after hero CRs he basically has AA-QQ. Whilst A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] isnt out of the question a passive may well not 3 bet you with 'just' the nutflushdraw.

On the turn you are getting 8:1 (less rake) and youll probably be able to sexy CR him to pay if you hit your 5 outer on the river. Donking right into him if you hit would also be okay I suppose if you think he is so passive that he checks AA if a str8 or flushdraw comes in.

[mvoss]

Nice hand OP.

[shuinthehouse]

[ QUOTE ]
given his stats and the action, when this guy 3 bets the flop after hero CRs he basically has AA-QQ. Whilst A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] isnt out of the question a passive may well not 3 bet you with 'just' the nutflushdraw.

On the turn you are getting 8:1 (less rake) and youll probably be able to sexy CR him to pay if you hit your 5 outer on the river. Donking right into him if you hit would also be okay I suppose if you think he is so passive that he checks AA if a str8 or flushdraw comes in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think even a 5% PFR is 3 banging QQ-AA and AKs, maybe not AA if he wants to keep people in. I think villain more likely has AQs or KQs, small possibility of 88 or AA. All seem to agree we are behind, and I don't get why we think the turn call is good. We are getting 8-1, need to get paid 10.5 to 1, and it's highly unlikely we get the extra 2.5 bets. It's probably only about 50% we can even get 2 more. We can hope for a check-raise on the river, but he may wimp out with his top pair/overpair, we can try for a bet-3bet, but he may not be willing to raise his top pair/overpair.

Edit: I guess our 3 J outs are clean except v. QQ and 88, so maybe = 2 outs, and our 2 Q outs are clean except v. AQ and KQ so maybe = 1 out, 3 extra outs make this call.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
given his stats and the action, when this guy 3 bets the flop after hero CRs he basically has AA-QQ. Whilst A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] isnt out of the question a passive may well not 3 bet you with 'just' the nutflushdraw.

On the turn you are getting 8:1 (less rake) and youll probably be able to sexy CR him to pay if you hit your 5 outer on the river. Donking right into him if you hit would also be okay I suppose if you think he is so passive that he checks AA if a str8 or flushdraw comes in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think even a 5% PFR is 3 banging QQ-AA and AKs, maybe not AA if he wants to keep people in. I think villain more likely has AQs or KQs, small possibility of 88 or AA. All seem to agree we are behind, and I don't get why we think the turn call is good. We are getting 8-1, need to get paid 10.5 to 1, and it's highly unlikely we get the extra 2.5 bets. It's probably only about 50% we can even get 2 more. We can hope for a check-raise on the river, but he may wimp out with his top pair/overpair, we can try for a bet-3bet, but he may not be willing to raise his top pair/overpair.

Edit: I guess our 3 J outs are clean except v. QQ and 88, so maybe = 2 outs, and our 2 Q outs are clean except v. AQ and KQ so maybe = 1 out, 3 extra outs make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

you forgot to add in 4 outs for a straight.

[shuinthehouse]

4 outs for the straight was implicit in initial analyis, I thought those were the only outs at the time, hence needing to get 10.5 to one which we weren't going to get. Further thought added the 3 outs which makes it a clear call and me an idiot for posting without thinking it all the way through.

[Xylocain]

I fold pre flop.

People like 13/5/0.6/38 just dont raise anything short of QQ, AA, KK. If you fold the river you should also fold the turn drawing to 4? outs and getting 8:1. I dont think you make up for a lot with implied odds.