5-10 3 way 5k+ pot...right call?

[Neuman101]

Was cruisn along at 5-10 PLO table about 75 hands into the session...nothing special had happened...looking for optimal play here...as played, and given likelihood both have sets, is anyone folding this?


Seat 1: chrissyrivered ($985)
Seat 2: Black Marlin ($1,668.75)
Seat 3: OlliPolli ($1,461.25)
Seat 4: Consciousness ($670)
Seat 5: tdogg99 ($2,976.75)
Seat 6: BUTTPIRATE55 ($890)
OlliPolli posts the small blind of $5
Consciousness posts the big blind of $10
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Black Marlin [Jh 9c Ah Th]

tdogg99 raises to $35

Black Marlin calls $35
OlliPolli calls $30
Consciousness calls $25

*** FLOP *** [Kh 5h Ts]
OlliPolli checks
Consciousness checks

tdogg99 bets $125

Black Marlin calls $125
OlliPolli raises to $640

Consciousness folds
tdogg99 raises to $2,185

Black Marlin calls $1,508.75, and is all in
OlliPolli calls $786.25, and is all in

tdogg99 shows [????]
Black Marlin shows [Jh 9c Ah Th]
OlliPolli shows [????]

I just flat called flop c-bet from tdogg as we were fairly deep and I did not want to play a big heads up pot with just flush and inside str8 draw...then olli raises out of blinds, he seems fairly tight and would probably only do this with a set...now when tdogg pushes his range is really narrow. i think sets, and hands like Kqj10, K10Ax, since he is only in for 125...now its back to me...this is an easy call? I figured there was no possible way i wasnt getting the right odds...

[certifiable]

standard call, ur hand has strong equity vs their ranges.

[grizy]

Call your priest and confess... then call.

[CrushinFelt]

This is a spot where it's almost never wrong to call, but it's not a spot where you're always going to be +EV. If one has set and the other has wrap + FD, you're not looking at a fantastic spot. The guy with wrap + FD is going to be really pissed if you call because you crush his range, but if that is the case then there's a good chance the set has 50% equity.

Against two sets your range improves quite a bit, up to 40% or 45% even, because you get more outs to scoop rather than split. I don't think I can really lay this down too often, if ever.

[sc000t]

I can lay this down...and would.

[wazz]

Why would you do such a thing

[_Gabe_]

[ QUOTE ]
I can lay this down...and would.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is absolutely no reason to lay this down ever.

[Ribbo]

Three handed shoving here is absolutely fine, shame about that third heart in your hand, but the gutshot straight draw makes up for it. Folding isn't an option if you have the bankroll to cover the swing.

[sc000t]

lettme straighten this out...

We have NFD and a gut shot for the nut straight, so 11 outs if either player has no blockers (which I highly doubt).

We have $160 into the pot and its $1,500 more (allin) to play. And the pot is going to be a little over $2675 if we assume olli will call behind so we're getting like 1.8ish:1 to call this...someone correct me if this is way off.

Best case senario:
Both villians have sets KKxx and 55xx with NO blockers and we're like 45% or so to win. And its a call, simple.

Worst case senario:
We're up against a set and a huge draw with a ton of blockers. In which case we're in the 20% range to win the hand and its a fold, simple.



Only problem its not so simple, in all likelyhood its somewhere inbetween those two senarios and Olli probably plays TTxx and 55xx post flop the same ways he plays a combo draw that has some blockers. So we gotta figure out the % we can expect him to show up with TT/55 vs the times he has a combo draw here. THEN we gotta figure out the possible hand ranges he has with flush and straight blockers and factor out our equity given all this. Like I said, not so simple.


Basically I think its more likely we're up against a set and a draw in these spots more than we're up against two sets. We only havd $160 invested, I just fold and find a better spot to gamble vs another stack that has me covered and another shorter stack that has potentially outs I want vs a set.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]

We have $160 into the pot and its $1,500 more (allin) to play. And the pot is going to be a little over $2675 if we assume olli will call behind so we're getting like 1.8ish:1 to call this...someone correct me this is way off.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is off. The total pot including our call is going to be $35 + $1,668.75 + $1,668.75 + $1,461.25 = $4,833.75. With $1,508.75 left to call, we're actually getting 2.2 to 1 on our money to call. With a typical equity of 30-35%, I'd say this is pretty automatic and will net us ~$100 of equity in the long run.

As for the overall play of the hand though, after the $125 bet, I'm raising pretty much always. You're in a 4-way pot where the PF raiser could be firing with a lot of hands that he's willing to fold to a raise, your bet looks really strong with no one folding yet, and you've got enough outs that you're rarely going to be in bad shape if your opponents shove over the top.