#1
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Odds of flush under flush
What are the odds of (Texas Hold'Em):
A) Two players being dealt suited cards of the same suit B) Those two players flopping a flush draw C) Those two players making the flush with two cards to come D) Those two players making the flush with one card to come Thanks! |
#2
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Re: Odds of flush under flush
The probability of 2 players (of 2) being dealt four cards of the same suit is:
13 choose 4 / 52 choose 4=11/4165 The probability of those two flopping a flush draw is: 9 choose 2 * 39/48 choose 3 = 1404 / 17296 The probability of those two hitting the flush on the flop (with 2 to come) is: 9 choose 3 / 48 choose 3= 84/17296 The probability of those two hitting the flush on the turn (and not before): 1404/17296*7/45=9828/778320 |
#3
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Re: Odds of flush under flush
A) For one player getting suited cards 12/51, which is about 23,5%. For a second player to get suited cards of the same suit as you: 11/50 * 10/49 = about 4.9%.
B) Someone should refresh my memory how to do this math. I think it is 10% but I could be mistaken. C) Simple enough. 7 outs for both. To get one or two cards of the correct suit is 1-(38/45 * 37/44) = 29.0% E.g. 100% - The chance of not getting any of them. D) Depends if it is the river card or the turn card. Lets say it is the river. Then you have simply 7/44. 7 outs out of 44 cards left, which gives 15.9% |
#4
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Re: Odds of flush under flush
Perhaps I approached this wrong by breaking it down like that. Ultimately, all I'm trying to get is the percentage chance of two players both making a flush during a hand (in a 6max game), assuming both are using their pocket cards and there isn't a four-flush on the board.
Furthermore, can the odds be calculated for if I hold an X high flush that someone has a better flush? |
#5
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Re: Odds of flush under flush
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I approached this wrong by breaking it down like that. Ultimately, all I'm trying to get is the percentage chance of two players both making a flush during a hand (in a 6max game), assuming both are using their pocket cards and there isn't a four-flush on the board. Furthermore, can the odds be calculated for if I hold an X high flush that someone has a better flush? [/ QUOTE ] Your question is too difficult to answer. The stock answer will take into account all situations. However, during play, it is unlikely for some of the combinations to actually be in play. For example, if UTG has 92s, he is going to fold. So the actual number of times it happens in a game is going to be a lot less than the statistical probability of it happening. |
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