Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-26-2007, 04:58 AM
spaz spaz is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 3
Default Odds of flush under flush

What are the odds of (Texas Hold'Em):

A) Two players being dealt suited cards of the same suit
B) Those two players flopping a flush draw
C) Those two players making the flush with two cards to come
D) Those two players making the flush with one card to come

Thanks!
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-26-2007, 10:06 AM
rufus rufus is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 425
Default Re: Odds of flush under flush

The probability of 2 players (of 2) being dealt four cards of the same suit is:
13 choose 4 / 52 choose 4=11/4165

The probability of those two flopping a flush draw is:
9 choose 2 * 39/48 choose 3 = 1404 / 17296
The probability of those two hitting the flush on the flop (with 2 to come) is:
9 choose 3 / 48 choose 3= 84/17296
The probability of those two hitting the flush on the turn (and not before):
1404/17296*7/45=9828/778320
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-26-2007, 10:10 AM
LarryLaughs LarryLaughs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 47
Default Re: Odds of flush under flush

A) For one player getting suited cards 12/51, which is about 23,5%. For a second player to get suited cards of the same suit as you: 11/50 * 10/49 = about 4.9%.

B) Someone should refresh my memory how to do this math. I think it is 10% but I could be mistaken.

C) Simple enough. 7 outs for both. To get one or two cards of the correct suit is 1-(38/45 * 37/44) = 29.0%
E.g. 100% - The chance of not getting any of them.

D) Depends if it is the river card or the turn card.
Lets say it is the river. Then you have simply 7/44.
7 outs out of 44 cards left, which gives 15.9%
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-26-2007, 10:35 AM
spaz spaz is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 3
Default Re: Odds of flush under flush

Perhaps I approached this wrong by breaking it down like that. Ultimately, all I'm trying to get is the percentage chance of two players both making a flush during a hand (in a 6max game), assuming both are using their pocket cards and there isn't a four-flush on the board.

Furthermore, can the odds be calculated for if I hold an X high flush that someone has a better flush?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-26-2007, 11:20 AM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,409
Default Re: Odds of flush under flush

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I approached this wrong by breaking it down like that. Ultimately, all I'm trying to get is the percentage chance of two players both making a flush during a hand (in a 6max game), assuming both are using their pocket cards and there isn't a four-flush on the board.

Furthermore, can the odds be calculated for if I hold an X high flush that someone has a better flush?

[/ QUOTE ]
Your question is too difficult to answer. The stock answer will take into account all situations.

However, during play, it is unlikely for some of the combinations to actually be in play. For example, if UTG has 92s, he is going to fold. So the actual number of times it happens in a game is going to be a lot less than the statistical probability of it happening.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.