#1
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AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
No stats, but villain is aggro/bad. When he is bluffing vs a c-bet, he tends to min-raise. If I had any fold equity I think this would be a push, but it really looks like he is committing his stack here. Do we fold and wait for a better spot?
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) Hero (SB): $460.00 BB: $432.00 UTG: $253.00 MP: $330.72 CO: $1,435.00 BTN: $400.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players) 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, BB calls $10.00 Flop: ($28) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $156.00</font>, [i]Hero ? |
#2
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
i love to gamble in spots like this but its stupid, just fold.
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#3
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
I think I push here, too. Villain has $270 left and that's not committed. Also I don't think this huge overraise is a sign of genuine strength.
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#4
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
Hmm, interesting spot. If you push, I estimate his calling range will be something along the lines of:
Board: Kd Qd 9d Hand 0: 36.131% { AdTc } Hand 1: 63.869% { 99, KQs, Q9s, JTs, Jd8d, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, KQo, JTo } Current Pot Size: 28 + 20 + 156 = 204 Left to Shove: 432 - 14 - 20 = 398 Final Pot Size if called = 432 x 2 = 864 X = P(Fold) EV(0) = (X)*(204) + (1-X)*(0.36*864 - 398) X = 30% So we need villain to fold 30% of the time for the play to breakeven. A read on villain would be great, but I'd guess he probably folds around 20-30% of the time, so it's close to breakeven. It is a great metagame play though that will help balance your play and gain action when you do push the nuts at very little cost, so I like a shove. |
#5
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
god, I love flush draws. Oh and you have a straight draw, too!
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#6
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
I found my results improved when I stopped pushing flush draws into monsters.
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#7
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
arrrrrrrrr in
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#8
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, interesting spot. If you push, I estimate his calling range will be something along the lines of: Board: Kd Qd 9d Hand 0: 36.131% { AdTc } Hand 1: 63.869% { 99, KQs, Q9s, JTs, Jd8d, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, KQo, JTo } Current Pot Size: 28 + 20 + 156 = 204 Left to Shove: 432 - 14 - 20 = 398 Final Pot Size if called = 432 x 2 = 864 X = P(Fold) EV(0) = (X)*(204) + (1-X)*(0.36*864 - 398) X = 30% So we need villain to fold 30% of the time for the play to breakeven. A read on villain would be great, but I'd guess he probably folds around 20-30% of the time, so it's close to breakeven. It is a great metagame play though that will help balance your play and gain action when you do push the nuts at very little cost, so I like a shove. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for running the numbers, that's interesting. I estimated my fold equity to be < 20%, simply because all his bluff raises had been small, and it looked like he wanted to get it in here. It's closer than I thought though. |
#9
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Re: AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise
Pretty easy fold imo.
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