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#1
06-11-2007, 11:14 PM
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200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?
I'm too scared to call. villain is like 46/24/1 over only 60 hands. *note that it's 3handed so thats part of the reason why villain's stats are so loose.
Blinds: $1/$2 3 players Converter Stack sizes: Button: $495.65 Hero: $235.55 BB: $149.00 Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $24</font>, BB folds, Button calls. Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($50, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $32</font>, Button calls. Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($114, 2 players) Hero checks, Button checks. River: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($114, 2 players) Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button is all-in $438.65</font>, Hero ______? 
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#2
06-11-2007, 11:32 PM
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Re: 200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?
i would call b/c you have underrepped your hand
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#3
06-12-2007, 12:07 AM
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Re: 200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?
Snap fold. Even though villain is aggro, overbets are much more often for value than as bluffs. The turn check is confusing, but the cost of being wrong is too great to fool around here without a strong hand.
The river card helps a lot of reasonable holdings for villain on the river and if he has a monster he can hope that hero is either slowplaying or makes a huge call in the face of such a random bet. I think if villain has KQ here an overbet is a great play by him. On the other hand, if villain is thinking at all (and there's little reason to think he isn't) he should realise that an overbet as a bluff won't achieve any more than pot sized bluff.
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#4
06-12-2007, 12:11 AM
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Re: 200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?
yep, good post ***. I folded. At the time I was kinda hung up on the thought "why is he doing this if he has a hand he wants me to call with", but in hindsight, I think it's a good fold.
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#5
06-12-2007, 12:13 AM
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Re: 200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?
You need to assign a pretty high likelihood of this being a bluff to call and even having induced I'm not sure it's a call. His stats say he's not that agressive post flop so I fold barring any other read.
Thinking more about it I think you have to fold on this board. He's too likely to have a set or 2 pair here and there is almost nothing he could be stone bluffing unless he's decided to call the flop with 67 and make a play. Everything he called with on the flop that makes any reasonable sense is now a pair and often better. Does he turn his single pairs <A into a bluff that often?
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#6
06-12-2007, 12:32 AM
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Re: 200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?
[ QUOTE ]
Snap fold. Even though villain is aggro, overbets are much more often for value than as bluffs. The turn check is confusing, but the cost of being wrong is too great to fool around here without a strong hand. The river card helps a lot of reasonable holdings for villain on the river and if he has a monster he can hope that hero is either slowplaying or makes a huge call in the face of such a random bet. I think if villain has KQ here an overbet is a great play by him. On the other hand, if villain is thinking at all (and there's little reason to think he isn't) he should realise that an overbet as a bluff won't achieve any more than pot sized bluff. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I agree. Also, I like a turn bet vs this guy.
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#10
06-12-2007, 12:49 AM
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Re: 200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why do we check the turn??????? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] no clue, but that's a different issue. since i'm the only one who wants to call let me expound. i am normally inclined to fold in these spots, but villain probably has us on K high (maybe a pp). yes, villain could be playing the "he won't think i'm bluffing game", but i doubt it. in my mind the overbet on this dry board (as opposed a the value bet) increases the likelihood that he is bluffing. why would you push for 4x the pot w/ 2p or a straight? it doesn't add up to me. i'm not one to make hero calls, but i'll call. (and of course curse my stupidity if he turns over KQ or AJ)
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