NLTRN - $110 + 5 Rivered flush on a paired board... raise size?

[PrimordialAA]

Ok, I'm assuming almost all are raising here, but whats your size, is a shove appropriate given the pot /stack /blind sizes?



Full Tilt Poker, $110 + $5 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 2 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): 1,385
BB: 1,615

Pre-Flop: (75) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero calls 25, BB checks

Flop: (100) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 75</font>, BB calls 75

Turn: (250) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (250) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets 200, Hero ???</font>

[xSCWx]

I'd do 600 to be safe. You might be able to squeeze a little more of out of him but it probably isn't worth the risk of forcing him to fold.

[dboy23]

a 600 raise is half your stack so I would think a shove is max EV here.

[hra146]

Id do 600 too.

We hate life when he shoves but we call right?

[shat4brains]

i like a shove, 600 seems more obviosly a monster

[hra146]

[ QUOTE ]
i like a shove, 600 seems more obviosly a monster

[/ QUOTE ]

with the pot a little bigger I shove as well, but shoving your stack into a t450 pot I dont love.

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like a shove, 600 seems more obviosly a monster

[/ QUOTE ]

with the pot a little bigger I shove as well, but shoving your stack into a t450 pot I dont love.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if you're shoved all in , you would call right?

If you would call a shove had you bet $600 , then you might as well shove all in and force the decision on your opponent .

[PrimordialAA]

but the point here isnt to force him to a tough decision, dont you WANT him to call all the time (just to play devil's advocate), wouldnt max value be the largest bet he will call the EASIEST (least likely to fold), I know it's not really how we calculate maxEV, but if it's an auto decision either way for us, and we're pretty sure we have the best hand, dont we want to leave his options open (the reshove, etc.) or I mean maybe a push is best, but I dont think it's because putting him to a decision is what we wanna do... I dunno, plz correct me if im off here

[jay_shark]

Suppose you only raise to $600 and you expect to be called x% of the time . If you shove for $1260 then the probability you are called is y% . For shoving and betting $600 to be about equal in EV we need to solve the equation :

600*x = 1260*y

x=2.1y

So even if our opponent calls the raise twice as often , you're still better off shoving all in . Betting to $600 would be prefered if you expect to be called a little over 2.1 times as often than had you shoved all in .

[PrimordialAA]

yes, thats a good explanation of why you might prefer a shove, but the forcing him to a decision isnt relevant IMO, but yea, I cant quantify if I thought he would call 1200 into that pot that much more often than 600, but good analysis w/the math, ty ;p