AA...lost again

[iheartponeez]

Very early, no reads.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$51.55</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$62.55</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$46.10</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$30.75</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is CO A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, SB calls $5.75, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $4

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($18.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $10</font>, 1 fold.


Playing this vs. 2 people is such a headache. Obviously KQ or AQ are possible. QJ is unlikely but possible. It's such a dry board.

[bsball8806]

You need to raise this flop. SB could have 10's, J's, even KK possibly. On this paired board, he could be betting any mid pair trying to fold out AK. Besides, what Q do you think he's calling a preflop 3bet with. KQ? JQ? QQ makes the most sense but I really doubt QQ bets out this flop with quads.

[iheartponeez]

A raise is a shove, right?

[corsakh]

Call.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. SB smooth-called a three-bet preflop; unless he has EXACTLY QQ I think we're ahead. A raise folds out pretty much everything that we beat, so I smooth-call intending to call all the way down. If villain checks the turn, I check behind. If villain checks the river, I check behind. If villain makes any bets, I call.

The only alternative is that if villain checks the turn AND checks the river I probably make a half-pot bet hoping for value from KK/JJ.

I'm fully expecting to get all-in by the river, and I'm also expecting to be ahead more often than I'm behind. I just don't expect a bet to be +EV, since I'm unlikely to get called by worse hands.