What do you PUT him on? I got me a purrr...25/50/100 live

[dlpnyc21]

Game is 25/50/100 (forced straddle) live. Game is 6 handed. Villian is Bring_da_noise from ftp. He is a strong live player capable of moves. We have a history of getting into big pots with one another, until now he has gotten the best of me online and I have gotten the best of him live. His image of me is probably TAG who is capable of a few moves. I have bluffed a few times in this game and have been instacalled each time, so he knows I'm willing to mix it up. A few weeks ago he had made a very big bluff against me where he raised a utg bettor and I cold called behind with a set and he bet the turn and river with a gutshot that missed for a 60k pot (this alludes to our "history").

It's late night--and this is always important live. He is also stuck.

Effective stacks are 14k (he has 14k I have him covered).

He raises to 400 in the Hijack, cutoff calls. I 3-bet to 1700 with 76hh on the button. I am just hoping to take the pot down, or play a flop in position and with momentum. I generally 3-bet light, but have not been doing so this session.

He says: "that's such a big raise" and calls. Cutoff folds. The flop comes Kd4x2d. He checks, I bet 2400.

This is where it gets interesting. He counts up his chips, counts out the bet, then counts out how much he would have reamining. It's kind of an awkward stack for him because if he shoved it would be an overbet. I felt on the flop he was considering shoving though.

He finally just calls.

Turn is a 3h, he checks and I happily check behind praying for a 5 to peel. River is a 6c.

The board is now Kd4x2d3h6c. There is a one card straight on board. I have a pair of 6s. He shoves for approx 9.5kish.

What hand do you put him on? When thinking about it, would he value bet a king this way? Would he turn a better made hand: like 1010 or something into a bluff here? Does he somehow have 5dXd and would he overbet shove here for value?

WTF?

Thanks,
dlpnyc21

[metron2321]

he has a set.

[jsnipes28]

Since it is unlikely you have a 5 (even though I assume he knows you 3bet light etc) he can value shove all 2pr/set hands as well as straights that got there.

As to the flop action, it appears you are trying to imply that he was considering crai as an option. In the case of a crai I would assume if he didn't have a made hand, then he would at least have some sort of semibluff which likely got there on the river.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
Since it is unlikely you have a 5 (even though I assume he knows you 3bet light etc) he can value shove all 2pr/set hands as well as straights that got there.

As to the flop action, it appears you are trying to imply that he was considering crai as an option. In the case of a crai I would assume if he didn't have a made hand, then he would at least have some sort of semibluff which likely got there on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he was considering CR shoving, that's what I am implying (or at least, it looked that way to me). If he "got there" on the river, meaning he has a 35 or something, why would he shove all in? What hand does he expect to get called by that doesn't bet the turn?

[spino1i]

I think this is an easy lay down. He could easily be bluffing with the best hand (i.e. 77-QQ) or have a str8/set.

I think hoping he's pushing with busted diamonds that have no pair is wishful thinking.

[jsnipes28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since it is unlikely you have a 5 (even though I assume he knows you 3bet light etc) he can value shove all 2pr/set hands as well as straights that got there.

As to the flop action, it appears you are trying to imply that he was considering crai as an option. In the case of a crai I would assume if he didn't have a made hand, then he would at least have some sort of semibluff which likely got there on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he was considering CR shoving, that's what I am implying (or at least, it looked that way to me). If he "got there" on the river, meaning he has a 35 or something, why would he shove all in? What hand does he expect to get called by that doesn't bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of times people just shove with the nuts (or effective nuts) and let you worry about making a hero call. What else would you advocate him doing with a nut hand there? Betting smaller? The fact that he plays online frequently too makes the shove more standard with his whole hand range it would seem to me.

[D104]

I don't play this high, but I used to play the Bellagio 10/20 fairly regularly and I will say this. When a player counts out the bet, and then counts out his remaining chips as if he is counting out a raise, and then just calls - it is often a draw that wants you to check the turn.

D

[durrrr]

for some ppl i'd think a huge % of their range is 77-99ish (hoping to get u to fold qq/jj). Obviously this depends a ton on how you guys view each other. That and the fact that hes only bluffing some % of the time make this a *default* fold for me, but v some ppl i think i call a huge % of the time.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play this high, but I used to play the Bellagio 10/20 fairly regularly and I will say this. When a player counts out the bet, and then counts out his remaining chips as if he is counting out a raise, and then just calls - it is often a draw that wants you to check the turn.

D

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree and this was my read of him on the turn: "i want to CRAI, but it would be a big overbet and if he has AA/KK/AK i'm toast and will be putting a large amount of $ in behind."

Whether this is a draw or 77-99 I don't know.

[adanthar]

I don't think this is ever a king, but I'm too tired now (been up since 7) to do the "better hand bluff/nuts vs. worse hand bluff" combos math and I'd probably screw it up anyhow. The answer is in that math somewhere.