Turn semibluff

[jason_t]

Live 15/30. First hand at table.

Folded to the CO who open limps, a solid TAG who knows me and I know him completes in the SB. I check T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, I call, CO calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets, I raise

[luckychewy]

Any reads on SB? I guess you're representing a sandbagged ace or J9. I like it since you picked up gutshot outs. If he calls and checks river are you betting UI?

[jason_t]

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Any reads on SB? I guess you're representing a sandbagged ace or J9. I like it since you picked up gutshot outs. If he calls and checks river are you betting UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a solid TAG. Easily a winner in the game.

I plan to bet the river unimproved if called which might make this too expensive of a proposition. I just feel like I know exactly what he is holding and how hard it will be for him to call here with that hand. The other problem is that the CO might not fold.

[luckychewy]

Good point that the CO might call as well. Sorry for asking if you had reads I thought the reads in the OP were for the CO.

I think if you think you can move him off his hand it's definitely worth taking the chance that the CO will fold especially since you plan to bet the river UI. I think an alternate line if you think the CO would call 2 cold is just calling so you get more money in the pot with a live draw.

One last question, would the SB raise with almost any ace to isolate against the CO, or do you have him squarely on a jack?

[gaming_mouse]

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Any reads on SB? I guess you're representing a sandbagged ace or J9. I like it since you picked up gutshot outs. If he calls and checks river are you betting UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a solid TAG. Easily a winner in the game.

I plan to bet the river unimproved if called which might make this too expensive of a proposition. I just feel like I know exactly what he is holding and how hard it will be for him to call here with that hand. The other problem is that the CO might not fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I like this alot more HU vs TAG. With CO in there I don't like it.

Also, why are you betting the river again UI? If TAG calls the turn raise, hasn't he almost always decided to call down?

[jason_t]

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Yeah, I like this alot more HU vs TAG. With CO in there I don't like it.

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There's a tradeoff. The presence of the CO makes my turn raise more believeable to the SB, right?

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Also, why are you betting the river again UI? If TAG calls the turn raise, hasn't he almost always decided to call down?

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No. He might call the turn because he thinks that I am free showdowning or he thinks that I think he is going to call down and therefore he thinks I won't fire a third barrel with a busted draw.

[gaming_mouse]

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Yeah, I like this alot more HU vs TAG. With CO in there I don't like it.

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There's a tradeoff. The presence of the CO makes my turn raise more believeable to the SB, right?

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Okay, it's a tradeoff. But this small gain is outweighed by far by you having to fold 2 people to make this work.

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Also, why are you betting the river again UI? If TAG calls the turn raise, hasn't he almost always decided to call down?

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No. He might call the turn because he thinks that I am free showdowning or he thinks that I think he is going to call down and therefore he thinks I won't fire a third barrel with a busted draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this parlay:

1. He is the type of player who will do exactly what you say.
2. He happens, in this hand, to have a J (and probably a weak one)

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

Sure, although raising the flop might be cheaper, particularly if he's capable of firing into the pot with complete air.

[TheBronzer]

I like the turn raise.

What is your table image to him?
Depending on that he may even fold to you right on the turn.

If you are correct with your read then I would probably bet the river UI. I agree that there is a chance he would muck on a river bet, especially if the card was right. Depending on my read I would probably bet the river UI. I would be definitely river betting a king or a queen (probably even a 10). Those are ideal bluff cards, there are too many hands that you could have been drawing to, if he still thought his Jacks were good, that he pretty much can't call (King or Queen high flush and you pair or you could hit your straight, IF he puts you on a draw). Given those bluff cards you have 6 extra outs because I feel a large amount of time you win if a K or Q hits, thus making your turn raise even better.

[benwood]

There are a lot of possible scenarios,but let's look at a likely one for discussion purposes.Let's say that if you just call the turn,CO will call also.Then,if you make your straight or flush on the river,you will bet it & get 1 caller.

On the turn,you have 12 outs from the remaining 46 cards.So,out of 4 trials,you will lose your turn bet 3 times & win 6 BB's the other time,averaging +3/4 of a BB per hand.

Let's say(for discussion purposes) that if you raise,CO will fold & BB will call.Then SB will pay you off when you hit your hand.If you check the river when you miss,you will lose 2 BB's on 3 trials & win 6 BB's on the other one one when you hit,breaking even instead of winning 3/4 bb's per hand if you had only called.

Let's suppose then,that you bet the river & SB folds 1/3 of the time.You will win 6 BB's once,5 BB's once,& lose 3 BB's twice,averaging 1 1/4 BB's per trial,1/2 of a BB better per hand than calling.

Although this is highly speculative,my guess,after looking at these (inaccurate) assumptions is that the turn raise & river bet will produce a higher EV than the call will.

Also,the raise will give you future value against SB since he will have a harder time putting you on a hand after seeing this raise.

Good job,IMHO.