NL50 | Top top line check

[Xanta]

Villain is 52/28 over a smallish sample. Never seen him play a 3bet pot before.

FWIW Hero is playing pretty active (for me at least) and is somewhere around 26/22 at this table. I don't think it matters that much against this guy FWIW.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $46.70
BB: $47.88
UTG: $18.04
CO: $70.92
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $49.45</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $3.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($10) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, CO calls $6

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($22) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($22) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14 intending to most likely call a push</font>

Pot Size: $50

Turn bet mandatory against this guy?

[fees]

top top is nuts?

k uhm... what are we beating?
KQ, KJ, QQ-JJ, QJ... J10

What beats us? AA,K10, 1010, 77
Interested to see his AF but i think we can rule out AA cuz monkeys do that from time to time but its rare + we have an ace and he was passive on flop turn and river. So we're ahead there. If he has K10 he's played this hand REALLY badly, so I think we have to rule this out based on occupational hazard of playing with retards. the hand we're scared most of is obviously 1010, which is HIGHLY unlikely b/c he raises 30% and hes in the freakin CO which his raise is prob 50%. if he has 107 (would you be surprised) or anything not mentioned that just buddylist and recognize its +ev and sklansky bux.

No point betting turn unless you strongly think he has QJ,
NH, if you think hes a RCM (retarded calling monkey) your bet oughtta do it, if you think he's not going to showdown alot not so much of a monkey, 8-9 is good too, it might even induce a raise sensing weakness which we call.
questions?

[Xanta]

I was strongly considering betting the turn because not getting all in with TPTK here felt like burning money against this guy. The river I think is stndrd, looking for a call from QQ,JJ, KQ and random junk. I'm rarely behind because if he has a monster he flopped it and after missing his turn check/raise he would have led the river most of the time.

What I really want input on is the comparison of the range that will call a turn bet and river shove versus the range of hands that won't call a turn bet but will call a river bet.

Also I think he check/raises the river very rarely here, so betting 8-9 is missing a bit of value IMO.

[Paul Thomson]

nh

[orange]

bet the turn for value.

[Xanta]

Orange, could you give me a range that calls the turn bet?

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
I was strongly considering betting the turn because not getting all in with TPTK here felt like burning money against this guy. The river I think is stndrd, looking for a call from QQ,JJ, KQ and random junk. I'm rarely behind because if he has a monster he flopped it and after missing his turn check/raise he would have led the river most of the time.

What I really want input on is the comparison of the range that will call a turn bet and river shove versus the range of hands that won't call a turn bet but will call a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis.

As for what hands will call the turn, random backdoor heart draws are just about the only thing you could hope for outside of an OESD or a turned two pair (or a slowplayed monster but that's doubtful with his stats). The river opens up his range to put $ in the pot. Nh.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
bet the turn for value.

[/ QUOTE ]
hmm i was thinkin of playin in tha exact same. i guess if he is this bad tho he could call with JJ+ KQ maybe some other random [censored]. at the table i play it tha same tho.

[Xanta]

I think that I can get 2 streets of value out of KQ, but that's the only hand I can do it against. Since this range is so specific, I think that it's +EV to pass up on 2 streets from KQ and try to target some of his weaker holdings.

JJ-QQ might call one, but not two. They'd also be more inclined to call on the river than on the turn I think after seeing me check behind. I might even be able to squeeze a bet out of 88-99 if I check behind on the turn.

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
Orange, could you give me a range that calls the turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah its a rr-ed pot, but a 55/22 isnt going anywhere with KQs and the like. QQ might even call, JJ maybe might peel, QJs gets a free look if we check, etc. i think narrowing villan to either a set or AA is meh.

i mean, checking isnt horrible, but i would just try and get the money in. your opponent is horrible, you have TPTK in a large pot, bah. if your opponent had been more solid, i like checking much more.