Sheets SNG article on Fox sports

[Master_Shake]

probably been posted before but i thought it was interesting...

http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/5536406

[BradleyT]

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Let's say you have a ROI% (Return on Investment) of 15%. I would say about 12% of that is how you play the bubble and how you play late in the game as opposed to how you play AQ UTG or some hand like that.

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Is it really that high?

[ymu]

If all of your opponents were playing optimal ICM strategy and unexploitable HU strategy, then no - you can only find an edge in either advanced ICM plays (which are rare), manipulating your opponents (which can be difficult) or in picking up/not losing chips early.

Otherwise, against average opponents, I would think curtains is about right. Your edge doesn't come from you playing better - you can play optimally because this forum tells you exactly how to do it. Your edge comes from making fewer errors than they do.

Obviously, the edge you can get at different stages depends on the level you're playing at. But then, as you move up in stakes, you develop more skills to find more edges. Advanced non-ICM plays and manipulating your opponents is needed at the higher stakes, but lower down more fundamental skills serve well enough to find a sufficient edge.

[BradleyT]

Ok but is it really that high?

[ymu]

That depends on how bad your opponents are relative to you at any given level. I guess he's saying that if you're playing optimally, you should have that sort of edge against the average field.

He's just saying that 80% of your total edge comes in the later stages, because if you're good then you can make up for losing a few chips earlier or take the best advantage from having a big stack.

[BradleyT]

I understand what he's saying but I'm wondering if he just made up that number for the interview or how he calculated that number.

If all your early hands really only account for 20% of your ROI then AA-TT and AK probably account for such a huge portion of that 20% that all other hands probably don't even matter. Not that I play anything else besides some smaller pairs but maybe even those chips should be saved...

[Shillx]

Well it depends what he means by 12%. There is no way that a 15% ROI'er makes (12+9)/(15+9) or 88% of his earn in the late game. If he is saying that he makes 12/(15+9) or 50% late then you would have to double up early (on average) once every 8 games or so. Seems reasonable enough to me.

[Mark1978]

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Ok but is it really that high?

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No way, see this post.

Edit: I think most of the gain in the early levels though is due to the hands you don't play, rather than the ones you do. At higher levels I suppose people don't donk off so much earlier on, so the bubble becomes more critical. Even so, I think the early game is far more important than many people give it credit for.

[Josem]

the only way to prove this one way or another is to look at the equity changes in your stack over the first x hands of a tournament, and compare that to your long-term roi/equity.


that'd involve some significant data analysis, but it could probably be done if you put the time and effort in to figure it out.