Public Service Announcement: Betting Draws on the Come

[Befolder]

Fellow Farmland Mobster Bilgefisher and I connected this weekend via IM and discussed a couple of hands we played. Mine included an open ended straight draw which I was betting and raising on the flop. Bilge wasn't sure I should be doing that, to which I tried to explain how the chances of making our hand were currently greater than our pot equity (1/# of players in the pot), which made it +EV regardless of whether we hit it or not.

I wanted to further discuss this for the following reasons:

1) To be sure I understand it correctly.
2) To further line the pockets of those who aren't yet doing this.

There was a time when I also would not bet my draw until it came in. 2+2 helped me to recognize situations when it is correct to bet my hand before it is complete.

I will do my best to explain this through my normal style of random bumbling. I may require additional information from the rest of you versed in this tactic. Yes, this has been written on before in the past, but those who are new (quite a few) may not yet understand this important, profitable concept. Obviously if I misstate something, I want it corrected by some upper classmen.

Rule #1: Know the true value of your draw and outs.
Counting your outs correctly is high on the priority list as this will help you determine if you should be betting on the come or not.
This can be determined by discounting outs appropriately if the board becomes paired (flush draw) or a 3 flush appears (straight draw). Don't forget to count your over cards as well if you think they might also make you winners, be sure to discount those as well in many cases.

Rule 2: The chances of making your hand must be greater than your current share of the pot.
If there are 5 players in the pot, your equity is 1/5th or 20%. However, if your chances of making your hand is 35%, then you stand to win 35% of every bet that goes in the pot, not 20%. Therefore, you gain for every bet that goes in. Not only are you claiming your 20% (your bet), but you also get 15% every other bet because you will win the hand 35% of the time.

Rule 3: Recalculate on the turn.
Just because it is profitable to get as many bets in on the flop as possible, does not mean that the same is true after the turn card.
Recount your outs, pot equity and chances of making your hand in order to make the correct decision.
I know I was guilty of continuing to pump my draw on the turn in my earlier days because I saw it was correct on the flop.

Rule 4: Know your relative position to the aggressor of preflop raiser. Table habits are also important.
This can help determine whether you should be raising for value (Sklansky $$$, exclusive from results) or looking for overcalls, whichever will get more money in the pot. If the bettor is to your right, and your raise will face most of the other players in the pot to fold, then just calling is probably more correct...unless (table texture) you think the players will cold call two bets anyway.

Here is a simplified example:

Hero OTB: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop: 2 folds, utg2-mp2 call, CO folds, Hero calls, sb call, bb calls.

6 Players (6 sb)
Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Great! We have the nut flush draw. We have nine clean outs to make our hand. Using the rule of 4: 9 outs x 4= 36% chance of winning the hand.
There is no aggressor yet, so we don't know what our relative position is.

Action: sb bets, bb calls, utg2 folds, mp1 call, mp2 calls...

So we find out that the last aggressor is to our left. This is a good situation since we act last. There are still five people in the hand including ourselves we makes our share of the pot 20%. The chances of making our hand is 36% so want to get as many bets in the pot as possible because we are taking 16% of every bet that goes in over our original 20%.

Action:...Hero raises, sb calls, bb calls, mp1 calls, mp3 calls.

5 players
Pot: 8 bb
Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Action: sb-bb check, mp1 checks, mp2 bets, Hero...

Okay, our share of the pot is still 20% because there are still five players in. However since we only have one card to come, the chances of making our hand have now changed. We now use the rule of two to calculate. Our nine outs are still clean so 9 outs x 2 = 18%.
Pot equity: 20%
Making hand: 18%

Looking at that makes this look like a fold if someone bets.
Not so fast Chucko!

Our equity calc. now makes it -EV to put in bets...but our pot odds make this a clear call.

There are now 9 BBs in this pot. It is currently costing us 1 BB to call.

Chances of making our hand: 18%
Pot odds: 1/9 = 11%

Easy call.

I won't even bother going over the rest of the hand because it's irrelevant. The correct decisions have been made up to this point and the results have no influence on that.

Hopefully I've done some justice to this topic. For most of you this is probably rudimentary and repetitive. I hope someone gets some value out of it.

If someone wants to calculate our actual equity percentages by street, feel free. That's not my strong point. I'm more of a concept and poker philosophy guy.

[DrModern]

Nice post, man, but I think you've slightly misunderstood the concepts. Some of it is just terminology.

Your pot equity (which you called a "making hand" percentage, or something) is the percentage of the pot that you own based on your chances of making a winner by the river. Your break-even percentage, or BEP, is the 1/x, where x is the number of players in the hand. If your pot equity is greater than your BEP, you make theoretical money on all bets that go in.*

Keep in mind that if, say, you bet the nut FD into two players and one of them folds, you no longer have a pot equity edge. If you don't get raised**, however, your bet is still +EV as long as the pot size is large enough, viz. in this case is offering you slightly better than 4:1 odds.

This concept applies to the turn of your example hand. You state:

[ QUOTE ]
Our equity calc. now makes it -EV to put in bets...but our pot odds make this a clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is, strictly speaking, false. If our pot odds dictate a call, it must be +EV to call, in other words, to put in one bet. It's important to remember that if we bet and get called here, that's mathematically the same thing. There are clear strategic differences between the two, tho, and check-calling is often the best line on the turn with a FD or an OESD.

The practical point is this: Use your pot equity to make raise/call decisions, use your outs vs. pot odds calculations to make call/fold decisions.

*This does mean that hand reading should be ignored. If you strongly suspect, for instance, that one of your opponents has a set, you should play more cautiously.
**Actually, this depends on the pot size, too.

[Xhad]

Modified:

[ QUOTE ]
Rule 2: The chances of making your hand must be greater than your current share of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

My version: The chances of making your hand must be greater than your expected share of the pot after the flop action OR you must have a chance of winning with a semibluff.

The reason I say this is that some draws don't gain much (if any) equity from people folding. If your equity is 27% and you have three opponents, technically you have an equity edge but if you bet and someone folds and your equity is now like 28%, your bet lost money.

[ QUOTE ]
Rule 3: Recalculate on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My version: Don't value bet a draw on the turn, ever. There are other reasons to bet draws on the turn (especially if you might have the best hand) but if you have an equity edge at all it's basically always diminished by rule #2 from above.

EDIT: DrModern:

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind that if, say, you bet the nut FD into two players and one of them folds, you no longer have a pot equity edge. If you don't get raised**, however, your bet is still +EV as long as the pot size is large enough, viz. in this case is offering you slightly better than 4:1 odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only true if you might win without making your hand.

[Befolder]

That's the kind of clarification I wanted somebody to make. I knew I'd confuse some folks with my blithering.

Your last line summary was good and simple.

I will note that I'm definitely not advocating being the bettor on the turn, but the pot odds certainly more than advocate calling a bet.

As far as your pot equity argument goes, I believe you were one of the few on the other side during that thread a week ago or so. I disagreed with you on the definition. I certainly may have misused the term here anyway.

[Befolder]

Good additions Xhad.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Rule 2: The chances of making your hand must be greater than your current share of the pot.
If there are 5 players in the pot, your equity is 1/5th or 20%. However, if your chances of making your hand is 35%, then you stand to win 35% of every bet that goes in the pot, not 20%. Therefore, you gain for every bet that goes in. Not only are you claiming your 20% (your bet), but you also get 15% every other bet because you will win the hand 35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct in very multi-way pots. In those situations, you tend not to have the benefit of being able to manipulate players into helping you out, so you've just got to play the numbers game and gamble a little.

However, there are times to pass on this edge for a bigger edge after you make your hand. When

(1) Your edge is small - Something in the 0-7% range is really a minor edge.
(2) The pot is small - A small pot means a small overlay for those times your outs aren't as good as you think they are or when someone has a redraw against you. A two card Q-high flush draw on the flop sometimes falls victim to runner-runner flush cards if someone is sitting on the ace. It's a rare circumstance, but it's expensive when it happens.
(3) Your implied odds are large - If you are against a player who plays weak-loose, you might want to just wait until you hit your hand to raise.
(4) You don't intend to see the river - Equity is computed in as a hot-cold simulation, as if you were all-in on that street. I would not push a straight draw on a flush board because I may not want to see the river if the turn is a flush card.

These things tend to happen together when the pot is not contested multi-way (although they can still happen in multi-way pots). For example, you limp T9s OTB after two limpers. the flop is AJ5 giving you a flush draw. SB bets and there's one caller to you. Your equity is probably about 35-37%, but you may not want to raise.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, our share of the pot is still 20% because there are still five players in. However since we only have one card to come, the chances of making our hand have now changed. We now use the rule of two to calculate. Our nine outs are still clean so 9 outs x 2 = 18%.
Pot equity: 20%
Making hand: 18%


[/ QUOTE ]
i haven't harped on this recently, but your share is not 1/(number of players in hand). that is the absolute best case. assuming your contribution is only 20% on that turn card assumes that everyone will always call every bet.

so if there are 4 players on the flop and you have A7s in the BB in an unraised pot and the flop is KQ4 with two of your suit. SB bets. should you raise? 35 > 25 so yeah, right? nope.

[DrModern]

[ QUOTE ]
If your equity is 27% and you have three opponents, technically you have an equity edge but if you bet and someone folds and your equity is now like 28%, your bet lost money.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. In the situation where one player folds to your bet when you have 27% equity, and two other players call, and you then have 28% equity, assuming there are some bets already in the pot--I think around 5 bets--your bet can't possibly lose money.

This is assuming we know that the flop action goes like this.

[Befolder]

More good stuff to help others think Aaron.

I tried to explain it using a very simple hand, but as we know, a lot of the hands we play are not going to be that straight forward.

I believe correctly discounting our outs when we will have less than the nuts helps us adjust our decision.

Drawing at straigths when the board is two suited is definitely not the right time to pump the draw. It's all dependent though.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If your equity is 27% and you have three opponents, technically you have an equity edge but if you bet and someone folds and your equity is now like 28%, your bet lost money.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. In the situation where one player folds to your bet when you have 27% equity, and two other players call, and you then have 28% equity, assuming there are some bets already in the pot--I think around 5 bets--your bet can't possibly lose money.

This is assuming we know that the flop action goes like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
i hope you're just blatantly misunderstanding what xhad is saying, because if not, i am super sad that someone can post here for as long as you have posted here and not understand why he's right.