Staking Arrangement question.

[Eihli]

Cliff's at bottom.

I never thought I'd be considering getting a stake but here we are.

I've been playing poker for 3.5 years and have a decent online record (barring a failed shot at 2k NL) over about a million hands. Since turning 21 I've quit playing online and play strictly at a local casino that runs a 5/5 $300(or half largest stack) max game with the worst players I've ever seen (compared to players I've played against in Vegas, Niagara, Costa Rica, and Turning Stone). From talking to a couple other players that play there for a living, it sounds like they beat the games for between $30 and $70 an hour. The players saying this are decent at best.

A friend and I are in the process of negotiating a staking arrangement. Right now, the deal in the air is: He stakes me $3000 and I play for 240 hours. At the end of the deal, we split all profit 60% staker 40% stakee. Staker can end stake anytime, Stakee must play until minimum time requirement is met. Stake is only good for the 5/5 NL game unless agreed upon beforehand for a different game.

Assuming a conservative $40/hr winrate, then at the end of the deal Staker should have $5760(192% ROI (~1150% annualized return assuming it takes me 2 months to play 240 hours)) and Stakee should have $3840($16/hr).

Can anyone think of anything we missed or haven't thought of that could cause one of us to be getting the short end on this deal?


One other option I was considering due to my financial situation: I'd be making $16/hr with the above staking deal. The casino runs a 3/6/12 game that I could play on my own bankroll. Worse players than in the NL game. I'm not as familiar with limit and haven't played the game enough to count mistakes and be able to estimate hourly rate. I'd like to hear everyone's estimates on hourly rate in a 3/6/12 live game with bad players.

Cliff's
1. $3000 stake for 5/5 300max or half largest stack NL game
2. Profit at the end of 2 months or 240 hours (whichever comes first) is split 60staker/40stakee
3. Profit



Any and all comments/suggestions appreciated.

[TheStation]

What is your roll for 3/6/12? If you have some roll, why not back yourself with half your money, half his, seems like you would get a bigger % of winnings/losses but allow you to move up without being only on his $

[Eihli]

[ QUOTE ]
What is your roll for 3/6/12? If you have some roll, why not back yourself with half your money, half his, seems like you would get a bigger % of winnings/losses but allow you to move up without being only on his $

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 4k in cash/bank. 3k in stocks that I'd quit poker and get a job before I cashed out, as irrational as that is... 2.7k in neteller that I'll hopefully be able to cashout next month. and 1k in a CD that I can cashout no penalty on August 9th.

I have expenses of about $1200/mo + gas/food/entertainment.

[Eihli]

bump

[bet2win]

how can people play a million hands over 3.5 years up to 2kNL and not have a bankroll?

just workout something you both agree on then print out the details and sign it.

how does he know how much you win anyway?

[_JoeJimJoe]

3k is not a big enough bankroll for that game.

[Eihli]

[ QUOTE ]
3k is not a big enough bankroll for that game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if this is using the right formula but...

http://www.poker-tools-online.com/riskofruin.html

Winrate of $40/hr and standard deviation of 60bb/100 or $100/hr shows me at stupidly low RoR.

It's different than online because of how bad the players are. The higher your winrate the lower RoR. If I put in a winrate of 3bb/100 RoR jumps to 5%

[_JoeJimJoe]

i play live full time.. 3k is not a big enough br for that game if you don't want to go broke. the standard deviation is probably not high enough or something i don't really know much about whatever formula that thing is using.. but in reality your RoR is much higher.

i mean your not destined to go broke or anything but if your serious about it and are relying on not going broke i would not reccomend it. You will have swings > 3k at some points in this game.